While your prediction is highly possible, however there are certain market factors that would determine how bitcoin price moves in the market. There are price patterns that will become a good basis in its price prediction, but there are also sudden market trends and events that will dictate its price.
In general, no one can create specific future price of bitcoin, but everyone is free to predict and speculate bitcoin price regardless of what factor will influence its price movement.
Of course and this is very natural, everyone has their own opinions and views and as you said in the first point above, the decline in BTC in the near future is 5% from 106K to 100K and this is inseparable from the interest rate cut again by the fed but there is another thing that makes the market shake quickly, namely BTC is still not a reserve by law from what I noticed from Powell's speech quote. But I'm sure BTC at a price of 120k will come early in 2025.