I have to say, nothing is certain if you are an airdrop player without capital or a user using capital (retroactive), even when you have done in-depth research, knowing that the project is really good, there is no guarantee that it will provide benefits to users who participate in it, so it is better to reduce expectations, and now many project creators are using users to farm, etc.
That is indeed how people should approach all of these airdrops, but instead they have very high expectations and so they get highly disappointed when it does not turn out well for them, and that happens frequently BTW. I have quite a lot of friends who participate in many of these airdrops and i try to tell them the same thing, funny part is none of them has ever been lucky with a project. Then there are the developers who are ready to take advantage of the situation to make money for themselves.