Yes, the inflation rate is still very high, somewhere close to 25% APR right now.  About this time next year it will be around 12.5%, but will suddenly drop to about 6.25% and resume it's slow decent for another 4 years.  For any increases in the BTCUSD exchange rate to be sustainable, there must be a growth rate in the economy that exceeds that inflation rate.  For the first 18 months, there was no bitcoin economy to speak off, so for the past 18 months maintaining an economic growth rate well in excess of the inflation rate has been relatively easy starting from near zero.  However, as the economy grows larger and the monetary base grows larger, the difficulty in maintaining such levels of economic growth increases.  I still don't believe that an economic growth rate well in excess of the inflation rate is improbable, and that we are as likely to see a return to steady exchange value growth as the general perception in the strength of bitcoin increases while the general mistrust in national fiat currencies also increases.  There will always be noise in the signal to deal with, however.