For sure this is a good point Odohu.  There is nothing wrong with having some hope that your BTC holdings would be in profits rather than not being in profits, yet profit levels should be known to have likely uncertainties in the first whole cycle, and perhaps even longer than a whole cycle.

With bitcoin, many of us are likely coming into it with an expectation that the longer term price slope is likely inclined upwards, yet in the short term we cannot have very much certainty in regards to its slope, and we are not even guaranteed that a long term investment into bitcoin will end up being profitable. .and even that bitcoin has chances of going down rather than up and even some chances of completely going to zero, even though the "going to zero" thesis is not a very likely scenario, it still has non-zero odds of happening.

So yeah, if our choice to invest into bitcoin is for 4-10 years or longer, then we likely can recognize and appreciate that bitcoin is an asymmetric bet to the upside, and perhaps even one of the best investments currently available to a broad swath of people across the globe.  Asymmetric bet means that as long as we do not employ leverage, then the most that we can lose is 100% of your investment amount, yet there are a variety of scenarios in which we may well be able to profit quite well from having an investment timeline perspective that is 4-10 years or longer.


It is strange that you proclaim 4-10 years as "perfect" or mentioning that I had made such a statement.

Surely some of the arguments that I make about bitcoin are semantic and other arguments that I make are attempts at being substantive and providing best practice kinds of guidelines, yet in the end each of us needs to figure out how to tailor his investment into bitcoin towards his own financial and psychological circumstances (if he so chooses to invest into bitcoin rather than to try to trade it or if he so chooses to even get involved in bitcoin).

Surely I frequently mention 4-10 years or more as an approach to bitcoin investing, and over the years, I have come to the perspective to try to assert that any timeframe that is less than 4 years is trading rather than investing, which surely is risky, and individuals are free to choose to trade bitcoin rather than invest into it, yet to me it seems problematic to be trying to trade bitcoin rather than invest into bitcoin, even though surely some folks might be  in circumstances in which trading rather than investing might make sense for their own circumstances (or preferences, or maybe even their inabilities to control their desires to gamble).  

In regards to bitcoin I also consider 4-10 years as a short-term investment that should ONLY be falling within that time line if a person has age and/or health considerations that may cause him to NOT be able to invest into bitcoin for longer periods, such as more than 10 years.

I consider 10+ years to be long term investment, and surely many of us who are new to bitcoin and new to investing would probably need at least 10 years to really be able to build up our bitcoin investment, unless we are somehow able to front load our bitcoin investment due to our own fortunate situation that might have resulted from our getting access to an inheritance or winning the lottery or some other reason that we have access to wealth and are able to front load our bitcoin investment, which surely also could be as a result of our landing a high paying job or perhaps otherwise being successful in some kind of a business deal.

I am of the perspective that even having a timeline of more than 4 years could be a trading rather than an investment perspective if the person is just figuring how to attempt to make dollar profits in bitcoin rather than being limited in his timeline by some kind of a health or age consideration.  So yeah, surely there could well be a decent number of people who are looking to make fiat gainz in  bitcoin in a 4-10 year timeline so that they can cash out most if not all of their BTC in order to buy their own personal residence or to make some other investment, and I probably would consider those kinds of motivations in terms of treating bitcoin as a trade rather than an investment, even though surely people can do whatever, they like, yet to me, I consider bitcoin to be such a great long term play that it does not seem to be a good idea to be diverting value into other avenues or projects, except perhaps if there can be ways to determine that there may be investments into oneself that would have good chances of increasing their abilities to earn more money in better ways than keeping the money in bitcoin.  

And surely these are discretionary decisions that might not really be clear from the outset, since truly I already appreciate that there could be circumstances in which some young people need to invest into their own education, job skill building and even experience building in order that they might be able to increase their chances of landing higher paying jobs that may well later allow them to be able to invest into bitcoin, even though surely it could take a young person 2-10 years just to build up job skills and to then be qualified to receive the higher paying jobs, which surely an example would be that in the west (at least in the USA) medical doctors tend to get paid good salaries, yet they may well need to involve themselves in 10 or more years worth of schooling, training and experiences in order to be able to land some of the higher paying doctor jobs, so it can be difficult to dissuade some folks from their concluding that it is in their better interest to figure out ways to build their job skills to be able to land such jobs, and there also can be feelings of self-fulfillment in some kinds of career paths, too.. .which may or may not be able to invest into bitcoin while also pursuing some of those job skill buildings.


Personally, I think that you (Ricardo11) are trying to say that in the long term, bitcoin's volatility tends to be towards the upside, and so even if there is short-term volatility in bitcoin, in the long term the volatility tends to trend upwardly.

I doubt that it is accurate to suggest that bitcoin's volatility is going to go away any time in the near future, even in the next 4-8 years or longer.  I expect that one of the greatest inevitabilities of bitcoin is that it is going to continue to be volatile, and we cannot even know which direction, except to hope that bitcoin's volatility continues to trend towards the upside - even though it is not guaranteed to trend upwards, there are a lot of aspects of bitcoin's design including its ongoing network growth, within the parameters pointed out by Trace Mayer, that continues to show that bitcoin's investment thesis is likely getting stronger rather than weaker, even though the upside and the downside is not likely as great as it has historically been, bitcoin still remains amongst the best (if not the best) of investments that is currently wide-spreadedly available across the globe to everyone no matter wealth level (even though it surely helps, and it is likely a requisite to be able to have some discretionary  income in order to be able to actually invest into bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer).


Surely you seem to be talking about trading rather than investing, and so you seem to believe that the value in holding bitcoin in the dips, and perhaps even buying some more bitcoin during the dips is so that you can sell when the BTC price goes up.  surely a short-term trading mentality rather than really thinking through the advantages of long term holding and accumulating of bitcoin whether in dips or not.  

Surely the more BTC that a person accumulates, then the more luxury that he might have to wait for dips rather than just ongoingly buying bitcoin.

Since you have been registered on the forum for more than 7 years, it surely is possible that you should have had been able to accumulate a decent amount of BTC by now, especially if you had been persistent in buying BTC rather than fucking around trying to trade it.

Even at an investment of a mere $100 per week, if you had started investing that amount when you registered on the forum you would have invested right around $38.3k, and you would have had accumulated nearly 3 BTC, which surely would not be a bad place to be.  You can adjust the amount based on whatever your actual personal budget might be, yet a more than 7 year timeline in bitcoin can truly put guys in decently good places even if they might screw up some things as long as they mostly stay focused on accumulation through buying rather than fucking around with selling their BTC.  Hopefully whatever fucking around with trading that you have been doing has not caused you to underperform a largely straight-forward DCA approach to bitcoin.


Holy shit!!!  

Do you really believe the bullshit that you are spouting out?  You were addressing your post to forum member @As-Soon-As who has not even been registered on the forum for a year and a half, and you seem to be proclaiming that "smart money is not buying bitcoin at these prices" and that waiting is a better strategy than ongoing buying. You should know that there are a lot of similar members as @As-Soon-As who have less than a whole bitcoin cycle accumulating bitcoin, and are you thinking that newbies should be trading rather than focusing on ongoingly accumulating bitcoin?

Since supposedly you have been in bitcoin for more than 7 years, you should realize by now, @Sebas.tian, that an overwhelming majority of the world's population does not have any BTC or does not have even close to enough BTC, even if they had bought some.  Sure there are some folks who have been buying bitcoin aggressively, yet I have my doubts that @As-Soon-As would fit into such a category of either sufficient or overaccummulation that would justify his slowing down his ongoing, persistent, consistent and perhaps even aggressive accumulation of bitcoin.

It seems to me when it comes to bitcoin investment, waiting is not a good strategy unless you have already reached a decently high level of BTC accumulation, which surely, I am not going to presume other members to have had reached such status, unless they describe their circumstances in such a way, and it is even more difficult to presume someone with less than a whole cycle of BTc accumulation to have had reached such overaccumulation status, unless they specifically say that they have reached such status.


You come off as retarded.

We have one of the best, if not the best assets known to mankind, namely bitcoin, and you want to try to trade it?  and you are recommending that guys try to trade it?

Again go back to my above example.  Have you personally been able to outperform a somewhat straight-forward ongoing, persistent and consistent BTC accumulation strategy?  And, even if have had gotten lucky in some of your past trades, do you really consider that trading is a good approach to bitcoin?  I have my doubts that trading is good for very many folks, even if you might have had been one of the ONLY ones who actually had been able to beat a straight-forward BTC accumulation strategy, especially in the last 7.5 years-ish.


Even if it is not completely against the forum rules to use AI to assist you in drafting posts, it would be against the rules to be submitting AI posts and not really producing your own ideas, and sure if you are trying to camouflage AI as if such posts and contents were your own, then surely, I cannot see how that is going to really help you out since forum members don't  like reading nonsensical jibberish, even if you might have vetted decent amounts of that information.

I would recommend that you try to post in more authentic ways about your own experiences, and perhaps attempt to ask, more questions and to interact with other forum members rather than fucking around trying to lecture us in your posts, especially as a relative newbie to the forum.  I would think that as a newbie to the forum, you probably should be trying to ask more questions from other forum members and reading what other forum members are saying rather than lecturing us in ways that don't even seem to be your own ideas or from your own experiences.

Frequently, newbies to the forum will not have as many bitcoin related experiences, yet they still likely have various life experiences and opinions and even perhaps desires to gain more forum experiences, and surely there are some forum members who want to build some forum rank so that they can join a signature campaign and receive income from their posts, yet it seems to me that you would be more likely to have success joining a signature campaign or even gaining forum credibility by trying to figure out ways to learn about bitcoin and to interact with bitcoin topics, even if you might not have a lot of money in order to actually buy bitcoin.. perhaps some guys only have $10 per week or some other modest amount, and they may have to spend several months on the forum and interacting in relatively meaningful ways (rather than using bots or plagiarizing) before they might get accepted to a signature campaign.  You are way less likely to even have a chance of getting onto a signature campaign if forum  members are accusing you of plagiarizing and/or using bots to draft your posts.

Sure, you may well have a lot of good ideas, yet since we have a conversational and interactive kind of a forum, you probably should try to show that you are a regular guy rather than spouting out lecturing kind of information posts that may or may not make a whole lot of sense.  Surely, you could practice with both long and short-form posts, yet it seems way better to both allow other forum members to get to know you, and also to try to be more relatable, otherwise you are just going to start getting red-tags or other kinds of negative trust, even if you are ONLY using AI as a way to help you.

If you kind of suck with English, then surely you will improve your English more if you are mostly drafting your own posts rather than having AI draft your post and then you editing the drafts.. and in the end, you have to choose for yourself if you really are being helpful when you lecture rather than interact about topics.

By the way, there are also forum members who start threads about certain areas in which they want to focus discussion, and sure maybe you could have AI help you with some of those kinds of posts, yet it still seems to me that you should be trying to build on areas of your own interest and trying to make your posts come off more like a human rather than a bot, even though surely it is understandable that more and more folks are using bots to produce and synthesize information.. which could be helpful on some levels, even though you should probably try to provide us with more experiential substance that does not appear like you are just throwing a bunch of information at us that you barely even seem to understand yourself, just to look smart.

I have a friend who produces this kind of AI assisted content in our real life interactions, and I find it to be quite annoying to have to wade through such jibberish that does not even help me to better understand that friend's way of thinking or ideas that the friend has on the communicated topics.