We still have to be careful not to overly read into a book that might not sufficiently account for needs to make sure that we stacked enough BTC first, and surely if you had been stacking BTC the whole 7 years of your time of being on the forum, then sure it could be true that you have gotten to a point in which you have accumulated enough BTC or more than enough BTC, so then you can start to cash out some of those BTC, yet I have my doubts that you have had been heads down stacking BTC for the past 7 years, yet maybe that is too presumptive of me.

Based on your location, I understand that you likely have not been able to stack $100 per week of bitcoin over the past 7 years, and even if you had been able to stack $100 per week you would have had invested $36,600 and you would have right around 2.715 BTC.  Would that be enough BTC to start to live on it rather than to continue to stack for another cycle or more? I wonder.  I am not trying to "I gotcha" on any of this because you are in a better position to know yourself, and surely it is possible that any of us might have been able to outperform a DCA strategy if we had been able to front load our BTC investment, and I can consider a variety of scenarios in which a decent amount of front loading could have had been done in order to result in about a $36,600 budget to have had resulted in more than 2.715 BTC, for example anyone who might have had been able to front-load their investment in a shorter timeline. 

So for example a guy who was able to average invest around $233 per week over three years from late 2017 until late 2020 may well would have invested a similar amount of $36,600, yet he would have had accumulated about 5 BTC rather than 2.715 BTC.

Surely, I am not even proclaiming that any of us can be so smart to either frontload our investment effectively or even guys who were able to lump sum invest into bitcoin with BTC prices around $6k to $7k, might have been able to buy nearly 6 BTC with the same amount of $36,600, yet many of us are not in a position to just throw some extra lump sums at strategically better BTC prices, and we tend to need to establish our BTC stake over time, even if we might have some money that we can reallocate from some other investments that we might have had previously had.

So I understand that in Brazil (or should I say places in South America), it surely would be possible to have a reasonably sustainable income, even off of something like 5 BTC, which even at 4%, it would be around 0.016 BTC per month, which truly could be in the ballpark of enough and in the ballpark of sustainable.. even though again, I still am thinking that some tweaks might need to come to some of the formulas in the sustainable withdrawal tool to help us to consider these matters in terms of the 200-WMA dollar valuations rather than becoming overly reliant on BTC spot prices or overly withdrawing of BTC, yet if we are remaining with what I consider to be relatively conservative withdrawals of 4%, it seems to be that your bitcoin will continue to grow faster than something like a 4%-ish annual withdrawal rate.

By the way, again, there is no need to give your exact numbers, and we can talk in terms of hypotheticals because I still consider that there can be a lot of challenges to really get to something like 5 BTC currently, even for a guy with 7 years of bitcoin experience absent some fairly aggressive early investment and mostly refraining from overly shaving off BTC stash in the past 7-ish years.

As you may recall in my own case, I started similar to you in terms of registering in the forum towards the top of the market (mine was 2013 and yours was 2017), and so I surely consider that it could be possible to front load your investment in your early years, and buy a decent amount of BTC as the price is going down, so that by the time the BTC price starts recovering, a few years later, then you (we) have mostly already built up our BTC position, so that we might have had gotten ourselves to a status of overaccumulation in the first few years of our investment into bitcoin (which was the case for me), yet I am having my doubts about whether you would have had been able to reach anything close to overaccumulation status.. and in my own case, by late 2013, I had already had more than 20 years of building up various other (non-BTC) investments, so I was able to draw from some of that in order to be a bit more aggressive with my BTC investment as compared to many guys who might be getting into bitcoin and they also might not have a lot of other investments in order that they can either leverage or to use as ways to justify  their BTC stash as being a kind of hedge against their other non-BTC (traditional) investments.

Recently I had made posts about the hypothetical guy who considers 21-ish BTC as a sufficient investment amount that would get him to fuck you status (even considering 200-WMA) prices, and so if a guy considers 21 BTC as sufficient, then he may feel even better if he had overly accumulated and he had 35 BTC (so he is more than 60% beyond his goal), so he can feel comfortable setting his BTC withdrawal strategy.  Yet the guy who has ONLY accumulated 7 BTC so far, is about 60% below such 21 BTC goal, and so that guy with ONLY 7 BTC would likely need to continue stacking for a whole cycle in order to potentially start to feel that his 7 BTC (and plus whatever he might be able to add to it in the coming 4 years) is then likely to be close to equivalent as the 21 BTC stash today.. and so then in 4 years he would have potentially good chances to be approaching getting to status of sufficient BTC accumulation, even though he would not be at an overaccumulation status at that point, even though give another 1-2 years, his same 7-ish BTC (and whatever additional BTC that he might be able to continue to stack) might start to feel as if they are at an overaccumulation  status.


I think that you might be creating a bit of a strawman argument, since I doubt that any of us is saying to save without having some timeline for starting to potentially withdraw from your BTC stash, yet I frequently have asserted that it can be problematic for guys to be dipping into their principle, so that is part of the reason to try to get to a status of overaccumulation before starting to cash out... since if you are still accumulating bitcoin and you have not quite reached a status of overaccumulation, then to me, it hardly makes any sense to be prematurely cashing out and/or trying to trade bitcoin and things like that.. which means overly spending during UPpity price periods with expectations to buy some or all of that BTC cheaper, which may end up being a form of gambling rather than really thinking through the need to get to a real and meaningful status of overaccumulation and having a wee bit of patience that may not even take as long as you seem to be implying it to heir take.. .which you are saying indefinite, and many times, one or two more cycles may well end ujp making a world of difference to guys who are accumulating BTC and biting their nails for their first opportunities to spend their "profits" in likely overly premature kinds of ways.

Sure, you are free to do whatever you like and rationalize your behaviors of spending too much bitcoin too soon, which seems to me to have great potential of putting you in a position in which you never really are able to get close to fuck you status, even though it would have been well within your reach with a wee bit more patience of perhaps a cycle or two more of accumulation rather than getting overly excited to spend from whatever little BTC that you had been able to accumulate that likely had not reached a status of enough or more than enough, which from my point of view should be the case when starting to employ sustainable withdrawal practices, that can both allow to spend at or more than your needs and/or even to continue to build while you are in a status of increasingly greater financial freedom by attempting to exerise prudent and responsible cashing out practices.


First, you did not properly quote me, which I fixed it.

Second, I am pretty sure that Poker Player was not talking about 1-2% per month, but instead he was talking about 1-2% per year, which I considered to be overly conservative, but still, guys can do what they want. .and it may well be better to start out overly conservative in regards to cashing out rather than over doing it, especially if guys might be less than a couple of cycles into bitcoin.


Surely none of us can really assess exactly when guys would be in a position to pull the fuck you lever, yet it seems to me that if most if not all or maybe even more than a guy's annual salary can be obtained through living off of bitcoin, then a guy would be in a better position to pull such fuck you status, as long as he is able to figure out that he had reached such status and he is not making mistakes in his calculations, which truly brings me back to saying that I personally prefer to valuate our BTC stash based on 200-Week Moving average assessments rather than using spot price, and so the 200-WMA is a way to try to estimate bottom prices which would likely help us to better appreciate if we have enough BTC based on such estimated bottom prices rather than getting overly excited about BTC spot prices.. especially since if we are planning to employ some kind of a sustainable withdrawal of our BTC, we should not be considering converting large portions of our BTC into dollars rather than attempting to maintain our BTC stash and withdrawing from it on a regular basis, whether the actual withdrawals were to happen monthly, quarterly, yearly or some other kind of a timeline, which also may or may not be accompanied by attempts to time our withdrawals for Up periods in BTC prices rather than crashes or bottoms.

In regards to investment strategy, truly a guy has to get to a point of having had accumulated enough or more than enough BTC through buying through the years, perhaps even a combination of DCA, lump sum and/or buying on dips.  I would not consider trading or any form of selling to buy back cheaper as a responsible method to accumulate BTC, which truly could take 1-2 cycles or more to get a BTC stash to be at a status of sufficient and/or over accumulation in order to justify either beginning to employ sustainable withdrawal whether time based and/or price based or actually executing pulling the fuck you lever (to the extent that fuck you levers are voluntarily rather than involuntarily pulled).


Again, I doubt that trading is a good idea to build bitcoin wealth, and personally I consider trading to be dumb, especially for anyone who might be able to earn income from other places, and to set aside a certain quantity of his discretionary income for bitcoin investing, and yeah, if you are just starting now, you may well need 1-2 cycles or more to really build up your bitcoin holdings depending on a variety of your 9-ish personal factors, which you might want to review... also bitcoin investing is far from guaranteed, so you have to account for how aggressive you are able to be in your bitcoin investment based on your ability to establish strong back up funds and other ways of managing your cashflows so that you don't end up wrecking yourself... so I frequently talk about being as aggressively as you are able to be as long as you are not over aggressive to such an extent that you wreck yourself, and no one is going to help you or feel sorry for you if you fuck up by being overly aggressive or ending up gambling/trading  BTC rather than investing in it.. which surely could take 4-10 years or longer and if you are a beginner in investing, you may well want to consider best case scenarios of more than 10 years and perhaps closer to 15-20 years of investing in bitcoin, unless you are able to reasonably engage in frontloading of your bitcoin investment (which can be difficult for beginner investors to accomplish).