Real Madrid will definitely qualify to the round of 16, because they are playing two weak clubs to complete their matches. If you have observed in their last two matches, you will see that they are improving in performance and it will continue like that till they pick form. I believe that Madrid difficult times are over, and this is the time for them to start kicking asses.
Their 7th match will be against Salzbrug and their 8th match will be against Brest, statistically they do look below Real Madrid but anything can happen. If they win, of course the end of the Madrid league will get 15 points. But you have to know that the team above Real Madrid also has the same chance to win 2 times. So I think they'll have a hard time getting into the top 8. They seem to have to go through the playoffs. The change in format made everything change. It seems that this season's UCL champion will also be different.