I may be overreacting, but Xi released some more soft “threats” about unification today. Might just be some more posturing as Trump enters office, but BTC hasn’t been tested in major wartime yet. Lots of things at play here, an isolated invasion of Taiwan will be brutal enough to the global economy, but I can see global conflict spiraling out of control if this happens.

Obviously, we still have conflict in Ukraine and Middle East. These conflicts may escalate if Iran and Russia knows the US is now preoccupied in Taiwan.

New coverage also from WSJ today raising awareness to the extreme violence going on in Africa too.

In any case, I see the chance of a Taiwan military conflict at at least 1-5% chance in the next 4 years. These are supposed to be the golden years of crypto. And while I’m not prioritizing my own net wealth over the suffering that may come from a major global conflict, I do want to prepare for the worst.

Perhaps a Taiwan conflict might stunt the growth of the crypto industry? Perhaps less of an appetite to fund a strategic reserve, perhaps people turning to Gold, perhaps people divesting from risk on assets?

Has anyone given this some thought?

Or is HODL still the recommended strategy here?