We are speculating about this year, simply because we hope that more investors are going to troop in and also expecting US to open a Bitcoin reserve. Buy and Hodl, every stage is a dip.
You have ONLY been registered on the forum for one month, so it seems to me that you should not be fucking around trying to trade bitcoin, but instead spending at least a whole cycle accumulating bitcoin, and sure if you had been able to front load your BTC investment or you started accumulating bitcoin prior to your own forum registration, then all the better for you to have had gotten started earlier.. yet if you are pretty brand new to bitcoin and accumulating it, it seems better and more important for you to be figuring out ways to put your own systems into place to be accumulating bitcoin, and as you are able to get your cashflow systems in a stronger way, then you likely would be able to increase your bitcoin accumulation aggressiveness to try to get to a point that you are able to accumulate bitcoin as aggressively as you are able to, yet without recking yourself in the process... and it can take a bit of time to build up your bitcoin stack size, including that might need to spend 4-10 years or longer accumulating bitcoin before you can reasonably move away from such personal goal.. which likely would include figuring out ways to increase your income and to decrease your income to be able to accumulate more bitcoin.
I also agree with you, in fact, if a new investor starts investing in Bitcoin, he should not go towards trade first, he should first hold 2 to 3 cycles using DCA, that is, if a new investor can hold DCA continuously for 10 years or more, he will have a strong Bitcoin stack. From which he will get a "chance" to profit a good amount (not a guaranteed profit).
You are very right, before a new investor deposits aggressively, it is very important to ensure proper planning and financial security, and also pay good attention to improving his cashflow system. Because without good cash flow, we can never sustain any investment for a long time, and in the case of Bitcoin investment, nothing good can be expected without long-term holding.
Therefore, a new investor should first ensure his financial security, prepare the necessary funds, and make a strong decision to hold in DCA for the long term (at least 10 years) and hold accordingly, only then will a new investor have a "chance" to profit well from long-term holding.
Yeah that's true a newbie should engage in a long term Bitcoin holding because trading is very risky and difficult so in other to prevent losing money and stressing your mental health as a newbie engage in Bitcoin holding for some years and if you have the patience to continue your holding for 10 to 20 years then you can go for it.
Just imagine you start accumulating and holding consistently for 10 to 20 years and Bitcoin hits $500k to $1 million this can be possible (but not guaranteed) 13 years back no one believed Bitcoin will hit $96k per one Bitcoin.
Yeah that's true also, you can't start accumulating or buying Bitcoin aggressively without a proper financial security which is having an emergency, float and reserved funds and also having a steady cash flow, if you don't have this in place holding unto your Bitcoin investment without dipping hands or sell all off will be difficult, you are right when you say nothing good will be expected without engaging in long term holding.
As a newbie.
1. Be patient
2. Be consistent
3. Have a good cash flow
4. Build backup funds for financial security
5. Develop good management skill.