We are speculating about this year, simply because we hope that more investors are going to troop in and also expecting US to open a Bitcoin reserve. Buy and Hodl, every stage is a dip.
You have ONLY been registered on the forum for one month, so it seems to me that you should not be fucking around trying to trade bitcoin, but instead spending at least a whole cycle accumulating bitcoin, and sure if you had been able to front load your BTC investment or you started accumulating bitcoin prior to your own forum registration, then all the better for you to have had gotten started earlier.. yet if you are pretty brand new to bitcoin and accumulating it, it seems better and more important for you to be figuring out ways to put your own systems into place to be accumulating bitcoin, and as you are able to get your cashflow systems in a stronger way, then you likely would be able to increase your bitcoin accumulation aggressiveness to try to get to a point that you are able to accumulate bitcoin as aggressively as you are able to, yet without recking yourself in the process... and it can take a bit of time to build up your bitcoin stack size, including that might need to spend 4-10 years or longer accumulating bitcoin before you can reasonably move away from such personal goal.. which likely would include figuring out ways to increase your income and to decrease your income to be able to accumulate more bitcoin.
I also agree with you, in fact, if a new investor starts investing in Bitcoin, he should not go towards trade first, he should first hold 2 to 3 cycles using DCA, that is, if a new investor can hold DCA continuously for 10 years or more, he will have a strong Bitcoin stack. From which he will get a "chance" to profit a good amount (not a guaranteed profit).
You are very right, before a new investor deposits aggressively, it is very important to ensure proper planning and financial security, and also pay good attention to improving his cashflow system. Because without good cash flow, we can never sustain any investment for a long time, and in the case of Bitcoin investment, nothing good can be expected without long-term holding.
Therefore, a new investor should first ensure his financial security, prepare the necessary funds, and make a strong decision to hold in DCA for the long term (at least 10 years) and hold accordingly, only then will a new investor have a "chance" to profit well from long-term holding.
Not that am against the method of DCA in the industry because that is the method am using to accumulate BTC for so long and is working for me whenever the bull run is available in the market, which I will also recommend other investors to try and add the method to accumulate BTC in the bear run for them to have access to a bigger profits in the nearest future.