Fair enough that some form of diversification may well be justified to prepare for possible time periods in which BTC spot prices start to go below 25% above the 200-WMA, and it may well end up in periods of going as far as 35% below the 200-WMA, and so sure, none of us should want to be selling BTC at a time that is not of our complete choosing and we may well choose to either sell from other assets first or perhaps have emergency funds (in cash, or something more similar to cash) for those kinds of periods that we might not be wanting to use much if any of our BTC.
Diversification can be a confusing term in the bitcoin and/or crypto space because some folks may well consider that they might need to be diversified into shitcoins, which could even make matters worse for anyone to be exposing themselves to shitcoins and considering that they are diversifying outside of bitcoin.. even though surely there could be various kinds of funds that could be available for use in emergencies that could be considered diversification beyond bitcoin.. so perhaps if a person may have 10 years or more of his expenses/income in bitcoin at a 200-WMA valuation, then during the periods that bitcoin had been appreciating in value there could have had been some motivations to sell some of those BTC to keep in cash (whether it might be 10% or more) or perhaps to put that value into other kinds of somewhat liquid locations that are similar to cash.
This is so true, selling 10% to keep in cash or similar when BTC is high, is a good strategy for FIRE plan, cause with this, there will be hay for rainy days. And, this will give you peace of mind as not to worry about the bearish sentiment of the market in terms of taking out profit, because as you've said, nobody wants to be selling when BTC is down, nice idea.
Investing in shitcoins to diversify your investment would really be a terrible idea 😂😂. Those are too volatile and can just come crashing down anytime.
You can keep cash, equities, properties, and other forms of protecting yourself besides gold, yet sure, I am not 100% against gold, but there could be issues of getting out of gold, and if you have systems in place for getting in and out of gold, then sure, it could serve some balancing kind of purpose to help a guy from not having to cash out very much of his BTC at a time that is not of his choosing.
One way of getting in and out of gold is the use of reputable brokers, u can use good brokers to buy and sell gold in the forex market, well it's NFA(not financial advice, cause I'm not a financial expert) but I think that works but still it's also risky too.
So the guy with 100 BTC in the beginning of 2021, might have felt that he was struggling to be careful during the 2022 and 2023 periods of BTC price difficulties, so maybe between early 2021 and now,
he ended up spending 33% of his BTC stash, so he currently ONLY has 67 BTC, yet he still is doing much better now with 67 BTC as compared to how he was doing during the 2022 difficulty period, so part of his concern would be to make sure that he has enough and more than enough BTC when he enters into a FIRE status/practice.
I think here is the perfect answer to most of my questions, "so part of his concern would be to make sure that he has enough and more than enough BTC when he enters into a FIRE status/practice." Quoting you, this is the only way to get into a perfect FIRE era with BTC investment without much stress or hassel and also to have beat a good amount of ATH too so as not to be bothered by the bear market, thanks a lot for this wonderful insight