No absolutely no conclusions at this point and I would rather come up with 7-8 teams than just 2 teams that have good chances to win it. As you said United and Tottenham won't do much in the Premier League, I agree, but in these cup setups, there is so much more possible due to elimination. Like Manchester United playing 2-2 in the Premier League against Liverpool away from home. In the Europa League they would now have a home game and everything would be possible. The league can be an indicator, but it has been misleading in the past. I think it was Sevilla in 2021/22? When they played bad in La Liga and won the title and eliminated Manchester United and Arsenal if I recall correctly.
I agree with you we can't make a conclusion this quickly, because after all the competition is still long and along the way something surprising could happen. Now the question is who can be more consistent? This is a difficult thing to answer. Because basically the decline and increase in a team's performance cannot be predicted, especially in the European League. You gave a good example of Sevilla when they won the Europa League. In La Liga at that time they played badly, but in the Europa League they managed to come out as champions. Now this is why the competition cannot be predicted with certainty.
Thinking about consistency in these competitions, it is actually interesting if you look at it from another angle. Consistency is what you need in the leagues or otherwise you won't have a chance to win it. But how much consistency do you need in knockout rounds of other competitions? You need some degree of consistency of course to reach the knockout rounds obviously. But in my opinion you can afford games that are not at the best level and yet advance to the next round. I don't mean that you can get away with everything, but you can win a game while playing bad and advance to the next round. In the league, winning a game while playing bad can happen a couple of times, but not often enough to win a title. I think this makes these UEFA or national cup competitions interesting for underdog teams as well.