It is about 33% vs 100%

1 in 3 blocks are 3 minutes or faster.


so ⅓ x ⅓ x ⅓ = 1/27 chance of the next 3 blocks getting solved in 9 minutes or less.


Very down and dirty math.

but close enough. could be more like 1 in 35 or 1 in 40. As I am disregarding the blocks over 100% luck and they will alter this a bit.


This is assuming that the network did not add a huge amount of hashrate. which used to happen more in 2011 to 2014

Sometimes we would add 30% in 2 weeks back then.