You seem to be highlighting a couple of differing dynamics, which surely some folks can be lured into trading rather than investing and rather than building their investment, so many times newbies end up selling way too many bitcoin too soon, and selling is not a reasonable, practical or prudent method to assure that anyone in their earliest of accumulation phases is staying focused on actually accumulating bitcoin and building their bitcoin holdings... And, so another dynamic is that there is a lure into recognizing or wanting to lock in fiat profits, and for sure those are trading mentality kinds of ways of looking at bitcoin.

Sure, it is quite likely that even the long term investor into bitcoin can still consider the value of his bitcoin holdings in dollars and to consider that in the longer term his bitcoin holdings are going to be way more valued in dollars and to give him way more options in the future once his bitcoin holdings are built up over time, yet at the same time it can be distracting to be motivated into trading based on dollar profits, especially for the first one or two cycles that a guys is still building up the size of his BTC holdings.. which tends to be a combination of ongoingly and constantly accumulating bitcoin through ongoing buying and also most likely 1-2 cycles or more the value of the bitcoin will likely keep going up and even compounding upon itself to further increase the value of the holdings and the ability to profit from long term engagement of accumulation of the bitcoin through buying.

Of course, the ongoing accumulation of the bitcoin through ongoing buying is the most controllable part of the formula, which is likely also the portion of the formula that most beginners should  be focusing.  The portion regarding if the BTC price is going to go up or go down is not controllable and even known with any level of certainty, even though it seems to be theoretically reasonable for guys to be presuming pretty good odds that BTC prices will continue to go up with the passage of time - even though it is not guaranteed that bitcoin prices will continue to go up over time, yet part of the reason that we ongoingly invest into bitcoin is because we are presuming that the odds are pretty good that the bitcoin price will continue to go up over time, even though it is not guaranteed to go up and even though there could be quite a few unknown and likely unknowable ups and downs in the BTC price along the way including periods of extreme highs and periods of extreme lows, yet it should continue to be our mission to continue to buy no matter what during our period of BTC accumulation, especially since we cannot really know the ups and downs and to stay focused on the part that we know about which is our ability to continue to keep buying bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer until we get to a point of our BC accumulation that the size or our stash and our various life circumstances may well start to justify that we might modify our approach away from ongoing, persistent, consistent and perhaps even aggressive buying of BTC.

Once we get our bitcoin  stash to a certain acceptable size and even perhaps to a size that is more than we want or that we need, then we may well then start to be able to change some of our practices that might involve price-based and/or time based sales of our BTC, and surely I would not suggest to start to employ any of the sustainable withdrawal like practices until after we can reasonably and unambiguously conclude that we have reached a status of overaccumulation of whatever BTC stash we have and/or other financial and psychological circumstances that might be applicable to our arriving at our determinations.  

Within traditional investment systems, many people will continue to invest 30-40 years or more and still never get to a status in which they are able to start to live off their investments or to engage in sustainable withdrawal, yet many times those who invest are going to be better off than those who do not invest.  Surely in bitcoin it could be possible to both cut your investment timeline down by half or more, yet also to bring more likelihood that your ongoing persistent consistent and perhaps aggressive investment will end up paying off.. perhaps your timeline could be half or less, such as 15-20 years or less, yet at the same time it is not guaranteed to be cut in half so we just have to measure from our own circumstances progress and sometimes luck to see how it is going and the extent to we might be getting to a point that we might be able transition out of our BTC accumulation stage and into a maintenance stage and perhaps later into a liquidation stage, which might not really be greatly different from getting into a maintenance for life stage or a sustainable withdrawal stage.

Getting distracted by round prices, may well end up relating to dumb money who end up selling too much of their bitcoin too soon because they presume an ability to buy back lower and bullshit and dumb trading ideas like that which may or may not work out, but end up engaging in gambling rather than employing prudent and practical investment practices, which should be focusing on ongoing, persistent and consistent buying and not fucking around with selling any BTC.


Surely whatever approach that we put into place can enforce and reinforce our mindset on a consistent, persistent, ongoing and perhaps even with aggressive basis. Sometimes we might even question our own balance, and it can become difficult to stay focused and to maintain some kind of balance, even if the BTC price might be spending a lot of time going down and either our portfolio is going into losses, or we see that it is not worth as much as it was in the past, so we can become distracted by that.

We can also become distracted by the value of our BTC going up, and it might even become more challenging to continue to stay focused on buying when the BTC price keeps going up so much.. .so either way we can fall into distractedness, and perhaps our own convictions in regards to what we are doing or that it is better to continue to do what we are doing becomes more and more uncertain during our earliest of stages of building our bitcoin holdings, and it would likely become more comfortable after getting through a whole cycle or two, yet still I would not even proclaim that there still are not going to be periods of questioning our own allocations and whether we might need to make some adjustments.. and whether those adjustments are a good idea or not would be up to each person to figure out, and even if such adjustments are made in time 1, it might not be clear until time 2 whether the adjustments paid off financially or not, and in many cases we would not be able to turn back the clock to time 1 to make up for mistakes that we might have had made in time one, so we have to continue to consider that we are making the better kinds of up and down balances in regards to our own lifestyle choices and how we might spend our time, energies value and money, including whether on bitcoin or other ways that we spend our time, energies in value...


Neither you or I seem to be very BIG fans of trying to trade bitcoin, and so whenever I suggest that a guy might believe that he is no longer accumulating bitcoin and he is able to start selling bitcoin as the price goes up or perhaps as time goes by, from my own perspective, he should be selling within the portion of his bitcoin stash that he considers to be surplus and without any anticipation to buy any of it back.  If he feels that he is selling with an intention to buy some or all of the bitcoin back, then he likely should not be selling any of that BTC. In many of my earlier posts (within this thread or otherwise), I have outlined various scenarios to describe the differentce between reaching a status of overaccumulation or not, and surely it is not always clear when such status has been reached, and my own perspective has been that you shoudl know when you have reached a state of overaccumulation once you do, and if you are not sure, then you have not yet reached such status...so you either need to keep buying bitcoin and/or just letting time pass so that after some period of time it might become more apparent that you have reached a status of overaccumulation.

Maybe it bears repeating that if right now, I guy assesses his BTC stash, his standard of living and various concerns like that, so he considers that he would need right around 21 BTC in order to start to employ sustainable withdrawal of his BTC.  Right now, as I type this post, 21 BTC would have a 200-WMA value of $905k and nearly $2million spot price, and from my perspective, valuation of the BTC and whether you have enough BTC should be based on the 200-WMA value and not based on the spot value.

From his own perspective and assessment, if the guy reached 21 BTC or more then he has reached his minimum amount that he needs, whether it is pulling the fuck you status lever or otherwise. Now, if the guy looks at his bitcoin holdings, and he sees that he has right around 35 BTC, then from his own perspective, he has reached right around 66% overaccumulation, and so he has way more liberties based on his over accumulation status including he has 14 extra BTC that gives him quite a bit more flexibility in regards to how to deal with that excess, and the mere fact that he has excessive BTC gives him more options (and cushion), yet it does not really suggest that he needs to get rid of the excess.. but he knows that his shaving some extra BTC along the way, here or there is not really going to be detrimental because he has 66% more BTC than he needs in accordance with his own assessed standards.  Now if he takes action and he starts to withdraw from his BTC stash at some amount of in the ballpark of $6,666 per month, then surely with the passage of time, his BTC stash is going to continue to go down, yet I would suggest that if he is withdrawing monthly from the 21 BTC portion at an annual withdrawal rate that is between 4% to 10% per year (which would be 0.33% to 0.833$% per month), then it is quite likely that the value of his BTC stash (including the 21 BTC portion that he is using for his time-based withdrawal rate) is going to continue to grow faster than he is withdrawing it. He likely also could aim towards drawing higher amounts or months in advance during periods that the BTC spot prices are way higher than the 200-WMA as compared to potentially withdrawing less when the BTC price is lower compared with the 200-WMA.. and so whether or not he employs such moderations of his withdrawal rate, he will likely continue to be able to assess that he has a sufficient amount of BTC with the 21, and that he also continues to have the extra 14 BTC to the extent that he might want to buy extra consumption type things or if he might want to invest in other ways.. and surely since many of us realize that bitcoin remains amongst the best if not the best of assets, there would not be any compelling financial need to invest into anything else, so the reasons to invest could be for other kinds of reasons, such as buying a larger house, or some other thing that might have both investment and consumption components to  it.

If such same guy who has assessed that he needs 21 BTC right now to get to fuck you status or to a status of feeling that he is able to transition into spending his coins rather than either buying them or in terms of waiting to be able to start to spend, but if that guy looks at his BTC stash and he ONLY has right around 7 BTC, so he has not quite yet reached a high enough status from his own analysis of how many BTC he currently needs, so this guy with only 7 BTC is right around 66% below his target amount, so either he continues to stack bitcoin or alternatively he could just HODL for 4-5 years and his 7 BTC may well have decently good chances of reaching the financial equivalent of 21 BTC today...   By the way, I arrive at a rough estimate of the ongoing rise of the 200-WMA based on history and projections that involve an ongoing diminishing rise of the 200-WMA in the ballpark of 20% to 50% per year until mid-2028, and sure projections are far from guaranteed, even though we can still attempt to prepare and to have ballpark ideas about how our investment into BTC might perform and consider how we might attempt to prepare ourselves based on some of our ballpark projections.

So whether or not the guy who currently has 7 BTC yet believes that he needs 21 BTC minimum currently, is able to continue to add to his BTC in any kind of substantial rate, he also can likely see the rate that the 200-WMA is likely to continue to go up in some semblance of the ballpark projections that any of us are able to make..  Sure it is not guaranteed to continue to go up at the expected rate, but it seems a reasonable approach to keep holding, potentially keep adding to the BTC stash and not to start employing withdrawal techniques too early.. except to see that employing withdrawal techniques too early has gambling chances that the currently held 7 BTC might end up getting overly depleted and causing needs to wait even longer before getting into a position to start to be able to employ some sustainable withdrawal techniques, if that might be the kind of bitcoin related goals that any of us might establish for ourselves..