In which situations is my bet most likely to fail?
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The Bitcoin market is not suitable for tourists who come to visit with an idea hoping to to gain fast profits.

My advice is take your time learn the bitcoin market that is totally different from any other market in the world.
 
If you are not fully into it, the best thing you can do is buy bitcoin (e.g, every month or every other month) , store it in a hardware wallet and come back to see how your portfolio performs at the end of each year.

good luck