My suggestion for almost everyone is to focus on buying and accumulating bitcoin until you have more than enough, and then once you reach a status of having more than enough bitcoin, then at that point you will have more options regarding how to manage your BTC, whether that includes selling or holding or some combination, since once you received enough or more than enough BTC, then you have more options, and you may well be better to figure out ways to maintain and/or sell some of your bitcoin or even figure out strategic withdrawal techniques based on price and/or based on time, which I discuss a lot of those ideas in
my sustainable withdrawal thread.
...... I’ve been quite curious about something and I feel it’ll be great to bring it up here, it’s actually a question. Since you mentioned about strategic withdrawal, I was hoping to know your take on using Bitcoin’s Block time and halving cycles as some sort of a framework for strategic withdrawals. Is it possible to create a withdrawal strategy that may be tied to the halving cycle or do you think the approach is rather too simplistic? I strongly need your opinion on this.
In my above-referenced thread, I tried to set forth various kinds of withdrawal strategies that might either be price based or time based, and so even if we presume that you have overly accumulated bitcoin so you have a sufficiently large BTC stash (or more than enough), it surely becomes problematic to try to time your BTC sales, and surely maybe your main intention is merely to get the most bang for the buck out of your sales, or alternatively guys might be wanting to buy back cheaper, and so it can become difficult figuring out how to time your sales.. yet if you have achieved a sufficient sense of overaccumulation and you are selling way below the excessive amounts of your BTC, including that if the value of your BTC holdings is growing faster than the rate that you are selling, then maybe you are just being greedy if you are trying to squeeze more out of your bitcoin holdings than that?
My withdrawal tool shows quite a few explanations regarding how to attempt to do time based withdrawals that have some price parameters contained therein.
So, for example, if you figure out that your goal is to be able to have an income of $6,666 per month, you can establish a system of withdrawing
$6,666 per month and every month, and probably right now you would have to have a minimum of 18.51 BTC in order to start such a process (yet if i you are lacking confidence if 18.51 BTC is enough, then you can make sure that you have a certain amount extra whether that is 20%, 50%, 100% or some other extra amount that causes you to believe that you are not overly withdrawing from your BTC stash. Of course, if you miscalculated the amount of value that you ar going to need on a monthly basis, then you have to adjust the calculations to figure out to make sure that you have enough BTC to employ your withdrawal plan in a sustainable way..
If you screw up your calculations, then you ONLY have yourself to blame.
Perhaps you try to time your sale of BTC in order to withdraw BTC once or twice during a 4-year cycle, and if $6,666 adds up to $80k per year, you are putting a lot of strain to try to figure one or two times to make your withdraw within a cycle.. since that would be withdrawing $160k or $320k, but surely you could also have systems in which you see that that the BTC price is sufficiently above the 200-WMA, and so you decide to withdraw months in advance based on the BTC price being way higher than the 200-WMA.
My tool attempts to give some guidelines of the number of months a person might want to withdraw in advance based on how high the BTC price is above the 200-WMA, yet there still is no way to know if the BTC price is going to go higher or lower or if the guidelines are going to be very accurate.
So these are guidelines that I provide, yet you could still end up screwing up your own attempts to try to apply some version of them.
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A. if the BTC spot price is between 33% and 66% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + an additional month.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 66% and 100% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 3 additional months.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 100% and 200% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 5 additional months.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 200% and 400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 11 additional months.
E. if the BTC spot price is between 400% and 650% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 23 additional months.
F. if the BTC spot price is between 650% and 900% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 35 additional months.
G. if the BTC spot price is between 900% and 1,400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 47 additional months.
H. if the BTC spot price is greater than 1,400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 59 additional months."<<<<<<<<
You can try to shoot for withdrawal within an expected range, yet there is no way of really knowing if the BTC price will reach certain price thresholds or if the BTC price might be sustained at such price thresholds or if the BTC price might go even higher than your anticipated price threshold...,. so for sure, you could still end up screwing up your own attempts to try to apply some version of my guideline attempts.
My suggestion for almost everyone is to focus on buying and accumulating bitcoin until you have more than enough, and then once you reach a status of having more than enough bitcoin, then at that point you will have more options regarding how to manage your BTC, whether that includes selling or holding or some combination, since once you received enough or more than enough BTC, then you have more options, and you may well be better to figure out ways to maintain and/or sell some of your bitcoin or even figure out strategic withdrawal techniques based on price and/or based on time, which I discuss a lot of those ideas in
my sustainable withdrawal thread.
@JayJuanGee you've said it all, this statement of yours should be a working document for those investors that do not understand that the only time an investor should be thinking about what to do with his Bitcoin holdings is when such investor is satisfied with the amount of Bitcoin he has accumulated so far in a long term and at that time an investor can make decision on what to do whether to buy more which will also be beneficial to him or her or sell some to diversify but this diversification must never be in any shitcoin or altcoin, it must be a business that's profit assured and profits oriented even if it is a physical business that will help him or her to continue buying Bitcoin for another long period of time, personally I don't think having more than enough Bitcoin as you said should be a reasom for anyone to stop acumulating thiugh individual investor decision differs and matters too but for me if I got to that level, i can only diversify may be sell off some amount when it is necessary may be to invest in other good investmentsb like Bitcoin too and also continue reinvesting in Bitcoin since I know that Bitcoin is a continues process and there's no rules that an investors should stop when he or she has gotten enough Bitcoin in their portfolio.
Well what if you determined that based on current market conditions and your anticipated desire to stop working and to live off of your BTC, you have decided that 21 BTC is enough (and even more than enough); however, when you look at your BTC holdings, you see that you have accumulated 35 BTC, so you have accumulated 66% more than the amount that you have determined to be more than enough.
At some point you have enough, and you have more than enough, yet you are still the one who has to figure out where those thresholds might fall, and merely because you have a certain threshold right now, the changes in the BTC price and the changes in the 200-WMA likely would justify that the amount of BTC is likely going to be lower one year from now as compared to what it is today... so at some point, your quantity of BTC may well end up rising to the level of not only enough, not only more than enough yet perhaps 66% more than enough (or some other number of BTC that is clearly and unambigously more than enough). I cannot see any need that any person should feel like he needs to continue to accumulate bitcoin when he has reached such statuses, and also there could be scenarios in which guys are not able to spend their BTC as fast as it is growing in value, which is another sign that the person had accumulated more than enough.
I am a not suggesting that a person who has accumulated more than enough might still decide to buy BTC on dips... and perhaps even sell more BTC on price rises.. yet a lot of any of the sales may well be within cushions of way more than enough BTC, so even the person who has accumulated 35 BTC, and feels that he ONLY needs to have 21 BTC, the fact that he has 14 extra BTC does not mean that he needs to sell the extra 14 BTC, but he can instead shave off an extra 0.5 BTC at any time that he wants, and maybe on 28 different occasions, and still end up having more than enough BTC after he made various shaving offs of his BTC, but then at that time, he no longer has the problem (or the benefit) of having more than enough BTC...so there is not necessarily any kind of compelling need to spend excess BTC merely because they are part of a person's total BTC stash.