I fixed the error of your quote in this response.

It is difficult to generalize any kind of exact definition of what a status of overaccumulation would be since such status likely needs to account for a variety of a person's individual factors.

Sometimes I discuss various kinds of examples in order to attempt to describe what overaccumulation might be for one person, and recently I had been using the example of a person who concludes that his goal is to get to a point in which he can passively withdraw $6,666 per month, so maybe currently, he assesses that he would need 21 BTC in order to be at that status, and so if he has reached an accumulation that is higher than 21 BTC, he is currently in a status of overaccumulation.

The target could be moving too in terms of both the guy's comfort level in the formula that he is using and his assessment of if he has really adequately accounted for all of his expenses or how much income he might actually get from withdrawing $6,666 per month from his bitcoin stash and if he feels that he might be getting taxed from that amount more than he had anticipated, then surely even when he feels that he has reached his assessed overaccumulation level, he might end  up doing some recalculation and some reassessment and also consider that he might have to get to a certain level of overaccumulation, perhaps a 10% or 20% larger amount?, in order to really feel comfortable that he has realistically reached his own assessed level of what it takes to overly accumulate, and so for the guy who considers 21 BTC as currently sufficient accumlation, then 10% to 20% more would be 2.1 BTC to 4.2 BTC more so then maybe he chooses some amount within that range 23.1 BTC to 25.2 BTC in which he feels that he is financially and/or psychologically secure enough to take whatever further action that he deems is justified by his having had reached his own comfort level. 

Of course, if this same guy looks at his BTC holdings, and he sees that he has reached 35 BTC, then there should be absolutely no question that he has way overly exceeded his own expectations in regards to what is an adequate overaccumulation level, and surely guys can make errors to create too high expectations on themselves too.. because they become too insecure in regards to their own assessments in regards to what is enough and what is more than enough.

Another thing that happens in bitcoin is the passage of time that projects that a lesser and lesser quantity of bitcoin will be needed in the future in order to achieve the same (or similar) real wealth status as compared to what is needed today.  So surely that same guy who has 21 BTC might have insecurities about whether his 21 BTC is actually enough or more than enough, and he also has insecurities in regards if he is financially and/or psychologically capable of stacking and/or accumulating more BTC, so instead of acting upon his assessment that his 21 BTC is enough or more than enough, he decides to wait somewhere between 6 to 12 months in order to reassess his 21 BTC at that later time.  In this historical fuck you status chart, we can see that the quantity of BTC needed goes down over time for the same status.

Surely this guy has to make sure that he is not fucking around with his 21 BTC, and he has to make sure that his 21 BTC are sufficiently secure - even if he might hold 90% of them in private storage and the other 10% with exchanges and perhaps other less secure means, but still he has reached a sufficient comfort level that he has sufficiently and/or adequately secured his BTC stash, even if some portion of his stash might be less secure than another portion of his BTC stash.  There are also ways that guys can hold hot wallets, medium wallets and cold wallets, and perhaps his stash might be divided to be 2% in hot wallets, 8% in medium wallets and 90% in cold wallets.. or some other variation of comfort for the BTC holder.   

So if this guy has already reached 21 BTC that he considers to be sufficient in order to have had reached more than enough.. but he still is feeling like he is not quite confident enough, so then he can largely project forward in reasonable ways and assess that in 6 months, he likely would ONLY need right around 17 BTC for the same status (so then 21 BTC becomes 23% higher than what the guy has already assessed that he needs), and 1 year later could well project that 14 BTC would be all that he would need for the same status (so then 21 BTC becomes 50% higher than what the guy has already assessed that he needs).   At some point, the guy has to realize that he has enough and more than enough and no matter how he calculates, he has reached overaccumulation status and his ongoing delay is ONLY hurting himself by his own exercising of an overabundance of caution in which his own behaviors of over conservatism is ONLY hurting himself. 

Guys are responsible for their own calculations to figure out these kinds of matters, and if they get their formulas wrong or their expectations, then they only have themselves to blame, and I have ongoingly advocated using the 200-WMA as a means to calculate wealth for anyone who is wanting to transition themselves into some kind of a sustainable withdrawal system or if they might decide to lower their levels of  BTC accumulation aggressiveness based on their assessments of their progress and the value of their BTC in light of their various personal circumstances.


Sure.  Of course, you have to figure out your numbers, and if you screw it up, or you are valuating your wealth based on spot price rather than the 200-WMA, then I personally believe that you are more likely to screw things up, but if you are comfortable with whatever methods of assessment that you have reached then you should be in a good position to figure out what your target is, how that target might change with your own level of stacking and the ways that you valuate your BTC stash and any other wealth or income sources you might have, and you can also calculate how the value of your BTC stash may grow in time and if you might be in a position to either change your ways of accumulating bitcoin or if you might start to draw from your stash based on BTC prices and/or based on the passage of time.


People have to come to their own calculations regarding how to assess the value of bitcoin and also how to apply that to their individual circumstances, and surely bitcoin price is ONLY one part of the 9 individual factors.  Yet surely if a person has spent 1-2 cycles accumulating bitcoin, it would start to seem plausible that they should be able to come to some reasonable assessments of BTC value so that they can enter into some kind of a sustainable withdrawal system rather than ending up selling too much bitcoin too soon and then fucking up their own prior levels of BTC accumulation that they might have spent years and years achieving.  So yeah, even though I try to share some sustainable BTC withdrawal ideas in my thread, there still can be some difficulties that guys have in regards to figuring out if they have actually reached an accurate level of overaccumulation of their BTC stash size or maybe they are making mistakes in their own calculations and/or assessments of the valuation of their BTC and how to manage it, and so no one is necessarily going to feel sorry for them or bail them out if they end up fucking up their own assessments of their BTC stash, employing bad BTC management practices and/or then ending up selling too many of their BTC too soon (or perhaps trying to devolve into some kind of a status of trading rather than investing, which can be another common mistake that normies may well end up making).


66% surely is a high level of overaccumulation, so then it should become quite abundantly clear to the person that he has reached a status of overaccumulation.  Yet people still might be insecure in regards to making sure that they are not overly assessing their status, yet they may well end up damaging themselves if they cannot figure out some reasonable way of adjusting their own system and practices based on their assessment that they had reached an updated status.  Whether their "updated status" results in changes to the way that they accumulate bitcoin or perhaps it causes them to transition into sustainable withdrawal, it is not necessarily going to be the case that a person goes straight from accumulation or even aggressive accumulation to withdrawal, so they might first go through various stages of lessening the aggressiveness of their accumulation, and then they might go through stages where they are no longer accumulating (perhaps ONLY on severe dips), and then they might transition to selling bitcoin only on extreme price rises, and then they might transition to withdrawing at various points in the cycle or perhaps withdrawing twice a year or quarterly or monthly, so there surely can be stages in which they transition from various kinds of statuses and systems based on the updated assessment in regards to where a guy considers himself to be, and it is not likely black and white to go from one status to another since there can be early stages of accumulation to late stages to maintenance to liquidation and there can be various levels within each of the changed statuses on a continuum rather than black and white.. but graduation to further and further levels that are tailored to the various individual 9 factors..


This makes sense, and sometimes it can be difficult to describe particulars of the assessments that any of us might carry out without getting into too many details that might overly jeopardize aspects of our own OpSec kinds of considerations....

So for sure there can be some relaxation in our own levels of aggressiveness and some changes in our various tactics in the event that we consider that ongoing BTC accumulation should remain part of our practice and whether our ongoing BTC accumulation might shift away from DCA and into buying on dips or some other kinds of adjustments that we might make.. so if we have our own frameworks for figuring out our accumulation target level, then we can figure out the extent to which our ongoing and continued accumulation puts us in overaccumulation status, and we can also figure out the extent that we are valuating our BTC based on spot price or if we are using the 200-WMA order that we can attempt to be more realistic with ourselves in terms of if any changes that we make (to what we are doing) is reasonable under the frameworks in which we are valuating our BTC holdings as compared with other investments or sources of income that we might have.  And, yeah, if we end up screwing up our calculations and then employing faulty practices, no one is going to cry on our behalf, and we have to figure out ways to make sure that we are adequately protecting ourselves in regards to some of the screw ups that we might make. .which could go in either direction.. the direction of overly accumulating and also failing to start to enter into some sustainable withdrawal practices or in the direction of selling too many BTC too soon and then regretting that ended up engaging in that kind of behavior that had negative consequences for us.