Real and Atletico may have equal chances, but Barcelona is definitely out of place on this list. All these teams had difficult periods, but Barcelona had a series of games where they scored 5 points in 6 games, Real and Atletico did not have such a failure. Plus, look at the number of defeats - Atlético Madrid has 1, Real Madrid has 2, Barcelona has 5. One team is definitely superfluous here.
But this can still be a competition for Barcelona as long as they don't make any more mistakes where they draw or lose because it makes their team even more behind, honestly Barcelona is more ferocious against Madrid because they can score big scores but when in LaLiga they still struggle to win.
Atletico can win until now in the top position but usually towards the end of the season they always have a setback where they lose and are overtaken by Madrid.
Look, Atletico has 44 points out of 57 possible, that's 77% of the points scored. Real has almost the same figure. It turns out that Atletico loses an average of 0.7 points per game, which means that if Barcelona plays with 100% results, it will need about 6/0.7 = 8.5 games to catch up with Atletico.
And we are talking about ideal conditions where Barcelona wins every game. Plus there is also Real, i.e. the chances are many times worse since, let's say, there is a 20% probability that Atletico will get into a crisis. If the race was only between Barcelona and Atletico, these chances would be quite significant, but there is also Real, so the combined probability that both clubs will get into a crisis is 0.2*0.2= 0.04. 5 times worse.