You have identified a bit of a dilemma - since yes, we know that bitcoin is not guaranteed to go up forever.. but there is a Lindy Effect. .and there is confidence in fundamentals.. and there is a kind of sense that comes along with the ongoing existence of bitcoin and the ongoing uptrend contributing towards more confidence.. ..and probably it never gets to a guaranteed level.. yet our confidence likely continues to grow....

And, the person just getting into bitcoin might be even more nervous because he does not have a historical profit cushion.. so in the short term he is likely going to see up down and sideways.. and likely as he either keeps buying or sits on his investment, he likely sees more and more chances that he is in profits... another thing about ongoing buying of bitcoin for at least one whole cycle, then after 4 years of investing, it becomes more and more likely that our average price per bitcoin is around the 200-WMA.. and historically bitcoin actual spot price is 25% or higher above the 200-WMA.. so there can be a bit of higher confidence in regards to where we might be after 4 years of investing into bitcoin..

Of course, many times over a long period of time, and probably even over a 4-year period of time, the nominal amount of a guys income is likely to go up, and it might be another question regarding if the nominal amount of wage increases are actually keeping up with the debasement of the fiat currency, yet even in nominal terms, then a guys ability to buy more bitcoin will continue to go up, and so it may well end up being the case, that even after 4 years of investing into bitcoin, the guy's average cost per BTC is still somewhat higher than the 200-WMA.. unless he was able to front-load his investment, and still I would not presume any guy's ability to meaningfully front load his investment into bitcoin, even though I might suggest that it is likely to the benefit of anyone getting into bitcoin to try to be as aggressive as they are able to be in regards to accumulating bitcoin, yet surely newbie bitcoin investors likely will also have to spend time making sure that they shore up their back up funds and other aspects of their cashflow management so that they do not end up contributing to their own recking of themselves, since it is one thing to be a aggressive as you can, and it is another thing to overly do the aggressiveness and to end up engaging in gambling rather than investing due to sloppiness in cashflow management and no one is going to help anyone out who fucks up their own BTC accumulation by overly doing it and ending up wrecking themselves because they could not figure out the difference between being aggressive and overly doing it.,. and another part of the reason to have various back up funds is in order to save ourselves from ourselves since all of us are likely to make some mistakes along the way, but if we at least have back up systems, then our mistakes will be more likely the kinds of things that we can correct and also would not fall to the level of having to sell some (or all) of our bitcoin at a time that is not completely of our own choosing.

In regards to front-loading into bitcoin, there can also be some ways that guys are able to front load their investment into bitcoin, yet it not always possible to accumulate extra cash in order to buy ahead and not necessarily need to keep buying BTC for 4 years or more.. yet we know that the reality is that an overwhelming number of people struggle.. and they struggle with even setting aside 10% of their income on a regular basis.. I struggled with the same difficulty.. and surely, I personally had been set aside 10% of my income (and sometimes even a bit more when I was able to) for more than 20 years by the time I got to bitcoin (in late 2013), so then it helps to have had been able to build up that extra reserve over 20 years prior to bitcoin.. yet even any of us who have an extra reserve of money that we build up over a long period of time, we still get nervous about how we invest that amount that we had built up, and we don't want to lose any of it and we want to preserve it and grow it, so we ongoingly get nervous about where to put the money that we had built up.. so even if we might potentially have some lump sum that we are able to put into bitcoin in the beginning of our investment into it, we still might be nervous about how to do it and we still may end up spreading out our bitcoin buys over some period of time so that we do not end up buying all of our BTC at the same price and at the same time..

...and the dilemma in regards to how to deal with the matter is never really completely resolved, except for maybe with some passage of time and perhaps once we decide how to deploy and we make the deployment of the money into bitcoin, we may well experience some gaining in confidence that overall whatever we are doing (or what we had done) is not losing value and we feel even better if it seems that our overall BTC portfolio is gaining in value with the passage of time, even though we might not even mentally require very much of an increase in the value.. .. just that we are not losing value...and surely another reason to potentially use the 200-WMA for measuring the increase in value of our BTC holdings with time, so it is quite likely that the 200-WMA will be quite a bit below the price that we are buying our BTC, so right from the start if we are measuring our BTC value from the 200-WMA, we will be discounting the value of our BTC holdings, yet we would still see our BTC holdings continuously and ongoingly going up, and perhaps we might not be in profits in terms of measuring our holdings with the 200-WMA for 4 years or longer.  .. sometimes accounting tricks can help psychology and perhaps even put us in a long-term mindset to also keep up buying BTC for 4-years or longer, depending on our circumstances and if we had been able to front-load our bitcoin investment.

The dilemma of whether we are "in profits" and how much we are "in profits" probably never completely goes away, especially since bitcoin's spot price is nearly inevitably going to continue to be quite volatile, even 15-25 years into the future... and for sure there are some folks who get themselves into situations in which they are continuously losing value in terms of the savings that they have (especially with traditional savings in fiat and perhaps even some of the traditional assets and investments that they had made) and they try to work to make more income to bring them back to having an impression that they are gaining ground and they might even be misleading themselves in terms of their calculating in terms of fiat that is ongoingly being debased, so the fiat is not even worth as much as it used to be, so our measuring stick might be messed up, and so far bitcoin has largely been able to gain value greater than the debasement of fiat, especially in the long run of 4 years or longer (and it is not guaranteed to continue to do so, either), even though in the short term, the volatility can sometimes confuse the investors into bitcoin or even the pre-coiners about whether bitcoin is gaining value or not..since in the short term, sometimes, even in bitcoin, it will seem to be losing value rather than gaining in value, even in nominal terms.. and maybe it becomes even more confusing for some folks when we consider whether bitcoin is gaining in value or not in real purchasing power terms.. and so some folks might be confused in regards, to both how to measure their bitcoin, how to compare it to other assets and also experiencing certain levels of uncertainty about how bitcoin will continue to perform into the certain... which surely many of us consider that position size can help with these matters, and passage of time can also help to solidify some ideas about how bitcoin is performing relative to other assets and other places  in which value could be (or could have had been) held..