I doubt that you are describing the dynamics with rich people very well, since even rich people are not too likely to be keeping a lot of value in cash, so even if rich people have access to various ways that they can get cash, many times rich people do not want to sell one asset in order to buy another, so they end up spreading out their entrance into the asset instead of investing in a lump sum way.  Sure, there are always going to be examples of someone having a lot of cash or maybe selling an asset and then spreading out payments rather than lump summing, and perhaps in the end, there are difficulties to overly generalize motivations that rich people  may have to enter in a DCA manner rather than lump summing into an asset whether bitcoin or some other asset.


Of course there are still a lot of folks who sold too many BTC too soon (and also failed to buy BTC) at or around $100k, and still hoping and expecting BTC prices to dip below $85k or some other even lower price.  I would expect  that the odds are pretty decent that those folks are going to end up not being able to profit from their expectations of "down before up," but hey whatever, you can continue with such fantasy all that you like, and sure there are possibilities that you might be able to buy in or to buy back at $85k, below $85k or some other fantasy low number (such as sub $69k) as you are hoping for.

So, yes, I am telling you that there is a chance.



Good luck.  With such pie in the sky hopium-laden views of bitcoin price dynamics, you are going to need it.


Are you playing this cycle, Yaunfitda?  At some point in the 4th quarter of 2025, you are selling your BTC?

Sure, if we go by your forum registration date (in late 2015), you have been around longer, yet it still seems problematic if you might be implying that guys try to play BTC price waves, absent considering how long that they have been accumulating bitcoin and if they might have had reached some status of overaccumulation, which you might have had greater chances of reaching such status than other forum members given that you have already been through a couple of cycles and even getting close to 10 years in bitcoin.


It does not seem very accurate to proclaim that bitcoin is in dip, yet instead to just say that dip or not does not really matter in regards to someone who might be in his earliest stages of accumulation - or who might not have gotten enough or more than enough BTC.

I doubt that it is easy for either a newbie or someone who does not quite understand bitcoin to consider bitcoin to be in a dip, when he looks at the chart and he sees that the BTC price had gone up around 5x in the past 2-ish years...and so many newbies get distracted in regards to  their thoughts that bitcoin  is up.. so they cannot see whether bitcoin is a dip or not, which in the whole scheme of things, your whole point about bitcoin bitcoin going up tends to  be correct that we cannot even tell if bitcoin is in a dip or not, so our main concern should be more in line with whether we have enough bitcoin (or more than enough bitcoin) or not... and yeah, newbies are even lost in regards to answering that question.. but it is still not accurate to be proclaiming that we are in a dip at this particular time, even if you may well be correct that the main point is that the BTC price is trending up.. which also a bit of an unknown.. so the main factor should be that any of us should be continuing to accumulate bitcoin regularly and to be careful if we are holding back too much waiting for a dip or if we are tempted to sell when even we know that we are trying to accumulate bitcoin and selling is not a good strategy if we know that our goal is to accumulate more bitcoin.

For sure, it can be difficult help to get guys in a better mindset when they are considering that they might be able to either buy more bitcoin by waiting or that they had already sold with a similar expectation when the fact of the matter is that they are not even close to having enough bitcoin so for the most part they are just lost in a kind of trading mentality rather than a persistent, consistent and regular buying mindset... which will end up having way greater chances of paying off for them if their timeline might happen to be 4-10 years or longer...

and by the way, even if a guy has been in bitcoin for a couple of years, each time he buys bitcoin, he should be considering whether his investment timeline for the new BTC purchase is 4-10 years or longer, even if he has some purchases that he already made that are 1, 2, 3 or more years old.  Of course at a certain point, a guy might start to see his stash as getting to a decently large size, and he might even have been in bitcoin for more than a whole cycle, and he might even question if he makes any new purchases of BTC that he would be considering those new purchases to be for 4-10 years or longer, so motives for buying can become confusing, even when a guy starts to become motivated by how many BTC he had already accumulated and he might feel that he is not able to justify that he would buy BTC with an intention of holding it at least 4-10 years or longer. 

Another thing that happens is that if a guy had been accumulating steadily for 4 years, then his average price per BTC should be very close to the same as the 200-WMA, and surely right now we see that BTC's spot price is right around 139% higher than the 200-WMA, and for sure historically BTC spot price has spent a lot of time being 25% or greater higher than the 200-WMA, yet there also have been times in which the BTC spot price was lower than the 200-WMA, and maybe even after 4 years of buying BTC some guys might still not be comfortable with either their average cost per BTC or even the amount of BTC that they have accumulated, so if they spend an additional 4 years accumulating, then their average cost per BTC should end up being at around the 400-WMA , which should be an even lower average cost per BTC...and in the end none of this is guaranteed.. even though surely many of us consider that the longer that we continue to invest in BTC, then the greater odds that we have to both have our BTC holdings in profits (so long as we do not screw up our security and lose them) and that we also have invested in such a way that we end up having more options from our having had bought BTC as compared to if we had not been buying BTC.


The reason that people DCA at $126 per week for 7 years is because all that they have available is $126 per week.

They don't have $50k and they would likely never be able to accumulate $50k without some kind of disciplined practice of forcing themselves to stash away $126 for every week for 7 years.

Surely there can be some advantage in specifically sticking with a certain dollar amount per week for extended periods of time, yet there may be even more advantages to figure out ways to adjust the weekly investment amount to account for changes in circumstances such as income/expenses or other matters.,. including that it is quite likely that $126 in 2025 may well ONLY be worth less than half such as less than $60 in 2025 dollars.. since the debasement of the dollar can be quite extensive without our even being able to realize it...so we may well need to increase the amount that we invest on a weekly basis just to account for how the dollar debases with the passage of time.


Yep.. exactly.. likely needs  to adjust the weekly amount upwards, and sure there could be some time-frames in which the amount might need to be adjusted downward in order to account for shortages in cashflow  or maybe some other problematic matters that happen during the investment time.


If a person has $50k right now, it may well be retarded to spread out the investment over 7 years, and there may be some justification to divide the consideration into three parts of  1) buying right away, 2) DCA and 3) buying on dips.  There may even be quite a bit of emphasis in trying to front load the investment, and also if there were still some income coming in, then the person who has $50k right now would also be accounting for what his weekly (or monthly) discretionary income may well be.. so based on income, there might already be an ability to invest $50-$100 per week, so then if the guy also has $50k available right away he surely has options, and deferring investing it might be quite dumb, especially when it comes to figuring out reasonable and/or practical strategies in regards to bitcoin accumulation and balancing out the bitcoin allocation with other things that are happening in that persons life, including accounting for his 9 individual factors.


For sure, there may well be hardly any advantage to DCA over extended periods of time, if a guy has a large lump sum amount in his possession, even though there may be some preference to invest it in gradual ways, such as $1,923 per week for 26 weeks, and even that might be a questionable tactic if it is unclear if the BTC price might be able to stay down for the next 26 weeks.  I doubt that plugging DCA into any situation is really going to resolve the issue, especially if there are questions about how to deal with a bunch of cash that is right in our bank right now.  If the scenario was different, such as having the $50k coming to us over an extended period, then we may want to invest all of the amount of the $50k as it comes in.. even though surely many of us would also need to attempt to account for other income and/or expenses that we have every month, so if the $50k is extra money coming in there might not necessarily be any value to spread out the investment into bitcoin, except maybe over a few weeks in the case of $10k coming in at one time or some kind of a situation like that.