Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Who says it's too late to buy Bitcoin?
by
Huliya
on 24/01/2025, 04:47:03 UTC
[edited out]
Let's say someone starts buying Bitcoin at a rate of $100 per week starting in January 2015, which is $5,200 per year and a total investment of $52,000 over 10 years. Now if we look at the price of Bitcoin, we can see that there has been quite a bit of change in the price of Bitcoin from 2015 to 2025.

If that person were to sell their holdings in 2025 at the current price of Bitcoin (i.e., $50,000), their total Bitcoin profit would be 35 BTC (on top of their total investment of $52,000). It is important to note here that the outcome of their investment is very clear, as it is possible to know exactly how much they invested each week. [My calculations may be wrong. I got some help from chat-gbt for the calculations. ,
Now, if we talk about a trader trading Bitcoin at the same time, the profit and loss would be very uncertain. A trader may make a temporary profit, but in a volatile market like Bitcoin, the chances of making a consistent profit are very low. As a result, the trader will not be able to earn up to 35 Bitcoins, and even if he makes a good profit once, he may lose more money later.

Now we can see that if the investor had used the DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) method, his returns would have been stable and good, but there are many uncertainties and risks involved in trading, which may not ultimately yield a stable income.

The first sentence of your response seems to be just saying exactly what I had already said.. so those seem to be my words rather than yours.

Second, you might need to work through some of these comparison matters in your head and even read through my scenarios a bit more in order to attempt to make comparisons and in order to attempt to better be able to talk about making past comparisons as compared with making comparisons of what may or may not happen in the future.  It becomes confusing if you are making comparisons that cross over timelines, including that someone who starts investing right now (or even starts trading right now) is starting from current circumstances, as compared with someone who might have started 10 years ago, 5 years ago or even a year or two ago, such as around the time of your forum registration date.

There is no problem to compare different timelines as long as there are attempts to be clear about who you might be comparing at any given point.. so if we are talking about trader versus investor, then it may well be better to pick the timeline of the comparison for that.  If we are  comparing an early investor to a later investor then that is another comparison point.. and surely the subject matter of this thread has to do with whether it is too late to buy, and surely I like to emphasize considerations of whether a person might be a no coiner right now or a low coiner right now and then to figure out what the guy might want to do... A no coiner is a bit more clear, since he has absolutely no coins, yet a low coiner might not be much different from a no coiner in terms of considering himself to not have enough coins, so then a low coiner would still end up getting into analyzing the extent to which he had already accumulated in order to figure out if it might be justified for such self-assessed low coiner to either stop accumulating bitcoin, to temper his accumulation or even to sell bitcoin with an expectation of buying back cheaper (which then gets us into trading behaviors).

It seems to me that you are presenting some of your ideas with a bit of gobbledy-gook kind of way since you are mixing ideas of comparing past and present and you are also not even using current prices, to the extent that $50k might be relevant in terms of evaluating what a guy with 35 BTC might want to do, might want to consider doing or even to consider what such guy  might have done, if he had been accumulating BTC and then all of a sudden sold some or all of his BTC at either a lower price or at around our current price..

Also merely because a guy spent 10 years accumulating BTC and getting his stash up to 35 BTC with a mere $52k in capital, that still would not necessarily mean that he is going to want to sell some or all of  those BTC right away or even sell such BTC in large chunks, even though he currently is able to value his current BTC stash and consider various options that he might have based on his having had accumulated such quantity of BTC over the past 10 years.  The scenario may or may not be realistic in terms of the extent to which we might want to know other things about the guy that would have contributed to his ability to stay persistent and also why he might not have changed his behaviors at some point in the past 10 years, yet sometimes when we are presenting pure types in order to make comparisons, there still might not be very many people who might actually fit into such pure type without really knowing the context in which the guy might have had been in order to fit into the hypothetical person category.

Remember also that we might be wanting to compare what an investor might have done over the past 10 years as contrasted to what a trader might have done over the past 10 years, so one of the ways to make such comparison is to attempt to pick some kinds of pure or representative behaviors, so when we get to the end of the period, an investor would still be likely to treat his BTC stash in an investor kind of a way, which means that he is not necessarily going to transition into selling some or all of his BTC stash right away.. and a trader may well continue to trade through out the period. 

Of course, in the real world we may well not have pure types, so it can sometimes become more difficult to make comparisons of what actual real people might have had ended up doing since there will be instances in which investors act like traders and traders act like investors, and so those non-pure types are more difficult to distinguish in systematic kinds of ways without getting bogged down in a myriad of details.  To me it still seems quite helpful to try to compare various pure types, even though if we might be looking at what someone actually did, we end up having to get into the circumstances of that particular person, so even if we might be looking at our own performance over a period of time and where we might be in our own investment at any given time, we might see some value in trying to compare our own performance to our looking at where a pure type might have had been at the same point in time. ... so in that regard, we might consider if we might want to make adjustments to what we are doing, and so in that regard, on a personal level, I will frequently look at what a strict DCA person might have had done over a particular point in time, and to measure my own location and to consider if I am in a place that I want to be or if I might need to make some tweaks. 

Surely the comparisons of where we are at and where we could have had been are likely going to be different for folks who might be in their early to mid accumulation stages as compared with someone who might consider that he has already reached his accumulation goals and perhaps feels that he has overaccumulated.. yet in regards to this thread, there seems to be a bit of a presumption that anyone contemplating accumulating bitcoin and considering whether it is too late would fit into the categories of not having had accumulated enough BTC yet, which seems to be the definitional status of a no coiner and/or a low coiner.
Thank you! JayJuanGee, now I understand you completely. You mentioned how investors' strategies and goals have changed over time. In particular, how "no coiners" and "low coiners" can make decisions depending on the situation. I didn't think about "no coiners" and "low coiners", which was clearly my mistake. Your analysis made me think about many important things, especially comparing the present with the future. You also said that whether you want to buy or sell Bitcoin depends on the current situation of the person.

Of course, it is possible to compare investors and entrepreneurs. Investors can implement strategies such as dollar-cost averaging (DCA), where they repeatedly buy Bitcoin for a certain period of time, over a certain period of time. On the other hand, traders may want to profit from price fluctuations and change their strategy accordingly.

Your feedback is helping us reevaluate our investment strategy and get a clearer idea of ​​how to operate in the future.

Thank you.