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I doubt that profitable traders are even close to 10%, especially in something like bitcoin and especially if we might compare performance to traders versus investors into bitcoin.
I am considering that probably less than 1% of traders of BTC would have had been able to beat a straight forwards DCA strategy, especially if we were to be looking at 8-10 years or more. They fuck around and talk about profits, and yeah in the short term they might have some lovely stories, but carry out their strategy in the long term and it would be a pretty rare trader who actually were able to beat a straight forward BTC DCA approach. .and whatever system they used ended up being luck rather than replicable.. They frequently talk a BIG game, though.
10% is a more generalized estimate from what I have read from doing simple searches on the internet. But if it's actually a mere 1% or less, then that would truly be very surprising and makes the HODLers' debate more practical, and that would STILL be a very BIG understatement.
Those who truly outperform Bitcoin consistently every year, perhaps they probably also short sell Bitcoin during the bearish cycle?
Plus for HODLers, we also probably should learn short selling to use as a hedge against our own Bitcoin investments during bear markets?
Yes, a lot of folks fantasize about how they could get rich quicker than everybody else, yet with bitcoin even though the bearmarkets can seem torturous, it still has not been necessary to fuck around trying to trade, since you can get astronomically rich by merely having had invested steadily.
Let's take the person who had invested
$100 per week into bitcoin for the past 11.5 years. He would have invested $61.3k and accumulated 70 BTC. Do you need more bitcoin than that? Do you need more profits than that, even if you believe some of the traders could have had done better, I doubt it.. they lie about their results. .that is how gamblers are.
Maybe you prefer to ONLY go back
10 years, and such person would have invested $52.6k and accumulated 35.11, so of course, the shorter the period of time then the lower the quantity of BTC accumulated.
You are not going to know if your bitcoin is going to perform greatly merely from one or two cycles, and also if you had not been persistent, consistent, regular and perhaps whiimpy then you are also going to have had less superior results, and you likely need more time for the investment to compound upon itself.
The guy who had only been investing
$100 for the past 8 years would have invested about $42k, yet would have ONLY accumulated about 5 BTC. Still good results, but still likely needing more time for the continued building of the investment or for further time to run for additional compounding to take place, and yeah, the future is also not guaranteed, so each of us can ONLY do our best in terms of how aggressive we are going to be or how consistent, persistent and regular in our BTC accumulation, and hopefully not fucking around too much waiting rather than investing with as much aggressiveness as we are able to achieve without recking ourselves.
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Those who truly outperform Bitcoin consistently every year, perhaps they probably also short sell Bitcoin during the bearish cycle?
If the discussion about those hyperactive, serious and educated and educated traders, then I would say yes they use shorts as well. But this doesn't protect them from the tails of probability distributions. So many professionals got crushed short selling bitcoin. The term short squeeze comes from somewhere because there is one guy who is bigger than the other and just takes him off the chess board like a pawn. Trading can be treacherous because in times of low volatility when bitcoin is going steadily sideways with small ups and downs, everyone thinks they are a master at trading because it is a question of time when the threshold is reached again that your trade is in profit and you can realize a gain. But these movements don't go on forever and if there is any asset that can brutally test the tails of risk distributions, then it is bitcoin. It can go for a moonshot, and it can drop like a rock and those who claim they know or can predict when these events are happening, I doubt it.
When there are 10,000 traders, of course some of them get a short position right and then it pays off big time when they just opened it and bitcoin is about to crash 50%. Those are the guys who post on Twitter how genius they are.
I rather underscore what JJG has said here or what he has demonstrated with his examples. I doubt that more than 1% of traders outperformed the numbers provided. Most of those examples are around 10,000% profit. Come on, what is a trader supposed to do to reach those levels? Consistency in bitcoin has beaten everyone trying to time the market or trade frequently. Taking outliers as counter examples to DCA makes no sense because people are interested in the discussion whether trading in general put people ahead of HODLers who DCA. And that is an uncompromising
no.
In DCA, of course depending on where you are on your accumulation timeline, but in general every movement the market makes is good for the HODLer. This is not the same for the trader unless they play around with shorts. But the trader loses bitcoin trading. The HODLer adds bitcoin constantly, sometimes less, sometimes more depending on the price. The bitcoin stash of the HODLer DCAing will grow no matter what. The trader's stash shrinks with every mistake they make.
As always in life, you got this one lucky dude who for reasons unknown to themselves makes the right call at the right time 10 times in a row. Then they write a book about it, 100,000 people buy the book and try to copy the "strategy" only to find out it doesn't work because it is no strategy.