As at now 9:21am WAT, Bitcoin price is $99,180 which is below $100k. What does this mean actually? Well, it means the actions from government and some of these institutions can actually trigger the price of Bitcoin to certain level but it doesn't mean it would stabilise the price at stagnation without declining. However, I'm not saying we are going to witness the price going as low as $50k but on the other hand, we can not comfortably refute it's possibility. In the last bear, we witnessed the price going below $16k which no one really expected.
People are expecting something positive from the current government and institutions but why the price goes down? But if we are only talking about triggers or effects, then yeah they can easily influence it in any direction they wanted to, because they have more power to manipulate BTC. That being said, if they wish to stabilize the price, they can do it for real by just not doing any actions ( buying or selling ) . The price before is much lower than what we have now, so $16k is actually more possible.
Although, from the recent trends we can be confident that we'll likely not go to as low as $50k but of course, we can not completely relied on it. You have to expect the unexpected.
Yeah. We can make a plan B if plan A fails, to still have the best of both worlds. The drops that we are seeing these days is one proof that we should believe what you are saying there.