If we are looking back at history, and we have actual numbers because we know enough about a person's situation, then we would have the actual numbers that we could plug in and also see the variations in amount invested or other factual matters with a potential of making actual comparisons and based on actual hypothetical facts, even though we might end up guessing if we are trying to proclaim a person might invest based on sentiment rather than investing strictly based on how much disposable income he had coming in (for example calculating the disposable income for each wee and then presuming 50% had been used to buy bitcoin as compared with some other scenario). 

Many times when we are arguing on a forum like this we don't necessarily have enough information to plug in actual details, so we might just end up giving some general number like $100 per week for the past 8 years and then plugging that into a DCA calculator, and frequently that can be good enough to compare DCA versus lump summing at various points.

If we are trying to project into the future, then we still might get some kind of an idea about how much income we have and we can project out various price scenarios for the BTC price, so we could see a base case scenario as compared to best case scenario, worse case scenario and likely variations of the scenarios, and we could get some pretty decent ideas, even though for sure we are not going to know all of the details and if we were going to attempt to maintain such future projection, we likely would have to tweak our future projection from time to time to account for actual facts or changes to circumstances that would likely change the future scenarios. 

I think that an Excel spreadsheet can be quite powerful to make make future projections, including once we make our base case scenario, then we can copy paste a lot of the variables into new columns in order to create a variety of scenarios, and we can build on our variables and also save our earlier versions.  It can be quite helpful to assist us in working through various scenarios and even to figure out which portions we can control and which portions are out of our control, yet we can still attempt to account for the knowns and the unknowns, including using probability and percentages and even  incorporate some of our theories of the world, to the extent that we believe that our theories could impact the variables of the scenarios.


I consider DCA  to be way more flexible than you are making it out to be.  You could have DCAs that are very aggressive and approach the use of 100% of your disposable income for buying BTC whenever the money comes in or you can make a weekly determination.

You could also set up DCA to be automatic and a very low number such as $10 per week (and maybe your disposable income is $1k per week, so you pick a real low and whimpy number such as $10 per week, or you could pick a more aggressive number.  Of course the more aggressive you are, then the more careful you need to be that you don't overdo it and make mistakes and being more aggressive likely justifies having a more solid system of emergency and back up funds in place in order to rescue you if .you go to far in regards to your DCA or if you miscalculate and end up spending outside of your disposable income and from money you need for your expenses.


The article sound retarded and an exaggeration.

Wake me up if the BTC price goes below $85k.. otherwise the supposed crash (or correction) or whatever is noise. 

BTC prices move around all of the time and even in way more grand ways than 10-15% corrections, which arguably at best we got to a 9% correction from $107,149 to $97,750, and sure maybe there is more to come...though I am having my doubts about sub $85k which might start to get my attention.  Perhaps? perhaps?  And what if we use our ATH of $109,356, then that would be nearly an 11% correction..   Not even close to unusual.