I think the $200,000 prediction is an understatement. The difference now is that we've had the fucking president of the USA saying he's going to set up a strategic reserve of bitcoin, however bad we might dislike him. I think this is going to be a key point. If the maximalist strategic reserve is set up, as proposed by Cynthia Lummis, the price is going to go much higher than $200,000 this cycle and you don't have to be particularly clever to see that.
It seems that all the focus is on whether the US will make such a decision, or whether it will remain just a promise that will not be fulfilled for some reason. I thought the president would sign such a decision immediately in the first few days, considering that he has already signed so much - but it seems that will not be the case, considering that some of the decisions have already ended up in court.
I cannot say how complicated such a decision is in terms of feasibility, but if it were to be made, it is possible that it would cause a chain reaction around the world. In that case, $200k would really seem like an understatement, because apart from central banks, it is to be expected that many companies and wealthy individuals would join the race - and there are at least three times more millionaires in the world than there will ever be BTC.
If ever there was reason for optimism, this year could be special - but given that the future is always uncertain, only time will tell how right or wrong we were.