This year, Arsenal and Liverpool are also very good. Last year's champion Real Madrid suffered unexpected points losses in the Champions League this year. Due to these points losses, they could not make it into the top eight. This will put them in a difficult Playoff round. If they experience a surprise in this Playoff round and suffer a defeat, they will have to leave the Champions League early. Perhaps the reason why bookmakers give Manchester City or some other teams a lower chance of winning the championship is because of the Playoffs they will play.
Real Madrid have no choice but to win. They will have to lose one match and be eliminated from the Champions League. Their poor performance at the beginning has cost them some points, which makes it almost impossible for them to reach the top eight. They will have to fight through the play-offs to win the title. However, I am a little worried about them. Despite their consistency, from my point of view, they lack confidence. They have played some great matches towards the end and their recent form is also good. At the end of the day, it will be very difficult to predict Real Madrid's match. Maybe Real Madrid is not going to be eliminated from the Champions League right now.
It is very hard to predict if Real Madrid will qualify directly to the round of 16 or not. This because Leverkusen is on 8th position with one point ahead of Real Madrid and from Leverkusen down to Real Madrid only one point makes the difference. Therefore, the only way Real Madrid can qualify directly to the round of 16, is if from Leverkeusen down to Bayern did not get all three points in their matches which is impossible. Madrid will qualify with playoff.