We know that quite universally the person new to looking at bitcoin will come to a first impression initial conclusion that it is too late to get into bitcoin, which would good odds of them not looking into the matter further and not investing money into it.  So,  before they look further into bitcoin and attempt to understand it, they go with their initial impression which causes them to fail/refuse to invest time, energy or money into bitcoin... and so if any longer-term bitcoiners run into such person while they are formulating their initial impression, many of us longer-term bitcoiners will advise and proclaim that the person needs to look into the matter further and to get started buying bitcoin - yet even if a longer-term bitcoiner makes such suggestion, it seems to be a rare person who will actually spend some time looking further into bitcoin.  Perhaps the no coiner will also consider the longer-term bitcoiner as merely pumping their bags, bias and desperate to get new persons to join into bitcoin, which they might consider as a kind of Ponzi scheme in which the already existing bitcoiner is needing the newbies to come in and to prop up the BTC price.  Of course, the newbie no coiner is not correct with his initial dismissive assessments of bitcoin, yet what can any of us do in order to inspire them to get started by at least looking into the matter.  They don't want to.

Accordingly, it seems to take several touches with bitcoin before any newbie no coiner will end up taking some follow up measures that involve looking into bitcoin further and trying to find some decent sources and also just figuring out some way to get started buying bitcoin weekly, even if they merely start with $10 per week.

Even with so much additional attention to bitcoin in the past couple months that include companies and various governments looking into establishing bitcoin reserves, newbie normies still seem to be having difficulties both getting over their mental hurdles and to actually take some actions to actually help themselves.  Sure they may well be not even able to sort through some of the differences of the hype and even the shitcoining of the US president in order to be able to see the actual bitcoin value - yet normies are always going to have obligations on themselves to sort through information and to separate signal from noise... and it surely can take time, including that surely many of us likely anticipate ongoing UPpity BTC price pressure in the coming year or so, yet surely it can be quite difficult to know much of anything about the future in regards to either time or price, so in that regard, we cannot even have any confidence for sure that the BTC price will go up from here on out or how far it might go up or even how long such UPpity will last.. yet it seems that none of those uncertainties about the BTC price and the future justify not investing into bitcoin, even though the uncertainties could well justify how large of a position size that any bitcoin newbie might consider taking and other details regarding BTC buying frequency.


I have been batting around in my head the idea of risk, and it is not an inaccurate word.. but sometimes it is used for a whole hell of a lot of descriptive situations and without specifying what is being said... ..

Another thing is that so many times, no matter the BTC price I say get started. .and just adjust your position size and figure it out along the way.. and so yeah, I have mostly been saying this since around 2014.... kind of like a broken record, yet at the same time, it really is not easy to impose ideas on people, especially in my earlier years, because there was quite a short amount of a bitcoin track record, yet the punchline about investing still would have revolved around how much to invest rather than whether to invest... and surely we can now look back and see that really whimpy-ass investors who got started early benefited overwhelmingly greatly as long as they errored on the side of buying, holding and not selling... .. yet even very whimpy investors frequently were not able to stick with keeping their investment, and surely I also suggest that ongoing buying is way better than holding too, since ongoing buying reinforces both a commitment to bitcoin but also likely inspires needs to pay attention to bitcoin.

With the passage of time (perhaps the past 10-ish years?), the message to get into bitcoin message has not changed very much, even if surely some of the upside has been snuffed out.. such as the price going up from $250-ish to $100k-ish.. which surely is already a lot of snuffing out of upside that could have had been realized upon an earlier entrance..and surely many entrance points in between  2015-ish and present, too that could have had also been advantageous to the entrant... .. and yeah, still beating the same message about not being able to go back.. so then the initial impression assessment of the newbie still involves an impression that the upside has been snuffed out.. and there seems to hardly be any way to get them out of that - except perhaps position size rather than their coming to the wrong conclusion that involves continuing to fail/refuse to enter.


Hopefully no one is thinking about fucking around with shitcoins, and we are not getting mixed up from our need to focus on bitcoin first..


I am not even getting into particulars regarding which shitcoin, since surely diversification is overwhelmingly an unnecessary concept for an overwhelming majority of investors - except those who have been investing for a while and have started to build up some lopsidedness in whatever they might be investing into.

I am surely not going to presume anyone to have much if any investment experience and/or meaningful investment stash, since the overwhelming evidence is that an overwhelming quantity of people do not have much if any investments.

Accordingly so why the fuck would diversification be any kind of a beginner (or perhaps even intermediate?) kind of a consideration.  Some of the most important things is just getting started and get your cashflow management matters in order, which may also include sorting through your 9 individual factors.  I am not trying to be patronizing, since sure there may well be some folks who are further down the road, so they can start to consider more advanced kinds of practices.

Surely another area is  that the idea of diversification, even if we were going to go there, should be figuring out ways to spread areas of financial exposure in somewhat disparate areas so that if value goes down in one area, then it may either go up or stay stable in other areas, and so traditionally diversification would mean to potentially consider some other areas or fields and even classes of investments so like property, stocks, bonds, commodities and/or cash/cash equivalents.  

It seems way more difficult to make any kind of case for diversification within "crypto" since it would be quite difficult to be able to identify any crypto that would be able to survive without the survival of bitcoin, so therefore all the shitcoins are dependent on the success of bitcoin for them to succeed, even if they might market themselves as a bitcoin killer or some kind of a project that survive beyond bitcoin (which truly is bullshit even though newbies might not be able to recognize that attribute/talking point in regards to almost all of the shitcoins).  Sure, if some guys cannot resist their temptation to gamble or they consider that they might be missing out on some shitcoins, then perhaps they could chose to invest no more than 10% of the size of their bitcoin time, energy and value into shitcoins and/or trading, yet we know that so many times people cannot even control their own level of being distracted/lured into nonsense, so they might initially believe that they are limiting themselves to 10%, but then they hear about an offer of a lifetime, and then poof, they cannot help themselves.. and surely the odds would be that going BIGGER is not going to be helpful to their financial or psychological situation... but hey whatever, peeps can do what they like, even dumb shit.

Another aspect of diversification, that I already implied is  the dilution of time, energy and value into crap projects, so sure if a guy has $1k per week that he can invest into bitcoin, then he may well have a decent amount of capital that he could put into other projects, yet there are guys with only $10 to $100 per week, so dilution becomes quite a bit more of a potential negative. I recall in 2017 suggesting to people to not be fucking around and getting distracted into shitcoins, and some of them would say that they still had 10% to 20% in bitcoin, rather than in various shitcoins, which is exactly the opposite of how they should have  had been allocated,  and sure it could be that some of them ended up doing o.k. with their level of distraction, but I have my doubts.. even the guys who were in bitcoin at that time, ended up experiencing around a 78x BTC price appreciation and a correction back down to ONLY around 16x, yet I have troubles understanding how being in bitcoin would have had been prejudicing them, even when there was a 70% plus correction they were still 16x better off than they were in 2015.. ..and if they continued to stay in bitcoin, then right now they would be in around a 400x better position than they were in 2015... so it seems difficult to proclaim that bitcoiners had been suffering from less upside potential.. which continues to be the case today... and yeah, we will see how matters play out, yet I doubt that there is any need to invest anymore than 10% into shitcoins and/or trading..for those guys who cannot resist their urges to gamble and to have some other non-bitcoin exposures.


You are right about that distracting blockchain description mostly dying out, but it still does come up from time to time. .and it is not completely inaccurate, even though many times it is likely just being thrown in for fluff or to attempt to sound smarter and more enlightened about the "true values" of bitcoin without saying the word bitcoin, so perhaps we might not even really know what the fuck they are talking about when they get into those kinds of gobbledy-gook references. There may well be ways to still talk about blockchain, crypto and various matters related to bitcoin without either diluting the message or trying to come off as being out of touch with various value propositions of bitcoin, and surely I don't claim to really know how to talk about bitcoin in terms of some of the technicals and/or comparing it to various other cryptos - if there might be some needs to go down that path.

Even if there are some guys who really know about various cryptos and bitcoin too, I doubt it is very relevant for an overwhelming number of normies who are first coming to the space to be getting distracted into various shitcoins, and most likely they are going to be way better off to focus on figuring out how bitcoin fits into their lives before they start exploring the various categories of shitcoins, even though surely there could be some folks who have those kinds of technical and nerdy inclinations, even though it also may well not be good for their own financial interest to fail/refuse to learn bitcoin first - including recognizing that bitcoin is way more than merely some fun technical comparison point, but instead even some of the technically smart guys might get too focused on technical blah blah blah, and miss the forest for the trees by failing/refusing to recognize/appreciate the actual wow sound-moneyness aspect of bitcoin.. and why the sound-moneyness is actual such an amazing feat that happened to include an interesting technical angle. with the difficulty adjustment and the all-around-the-world achievement of consensus every 10 minutes...

Technical guys can sometimes get so caught up in various technical matters and be able to read code and various technical matters, and still fail/refuse to actually see and understand bitcoin because they are too smart for their own good, sad as that may be...Over the years we have had a lot of real smart technical guys coming to this forum and then disappearing either as a low coiner or no coiner because they were seemingly too smart.  


Surely there continue to be guys who want to try to control bitcoin, and others who realize that they cannot, so yeah, sometimes we can see various kinds of interplay, marketing and talking points, but then a coming back to bitcoin (at least the value) because many products have to figure out some kind of a balance, and  it seems way better if they are at least creating the impression that they are building on and complementing bitcoin rather than either pumping their own token or claiming to be some kind of a bitcoin killer... but yeah, of course, there is freedom in the ability to compete and/or to try to take down king daddy, and we likely can see that the efforts are not going away, and some attacks/competition will rhyme with the past and others may well come with a new angle, and for sure bitcoin is not guaranteed to win.. .. .so in that regard, each of us likely still needs to consider whether to invest (which seems to be yes) and then position size, which is somewhat individualistic, even though frequently I will suggest that position size should be as aggressive as you are able to be without recking yourself.... but yeah, of course, others will vary in their own perspective and/or bitcoin approach.


We are not going to get passed those distractions any time soon, since it is going to continue to be difficult for normies to distinguish between some of the shiny bells and whistles and to make sure that they are getting the real deal (namely bitcoin) and that they are keeping most of their stash (90%-ish) in self-custody rather than with 3rd parties, and so even if normies might realize that bitcoin is the real deal, they might still end up with some precariousness in their own decisions to hold their coins with third parties.. and yeah, I understand that self-custody can be challenging for quite a few normies, so I don't even consider self-custody to be a beginner necessity, even if self-custody should be an aspiration - but would not be good to lose coins because not quite able to achieve self-custody.. so we can continue to hope for easier and easier self-custody options.


Sure, we may well be able to see periods of relatively flat bitcoin prices during periods of consolidation, yet overall, I doubt that we can expect stability in regards to BTC spot prices.

I personally like to refer to the 200-WMA as a bottom price reference, and the 200-WMA tends to mostly be stable with an ongoing upward trend..and yeah of course, it is averaging out the weekly BTC trade-weighted prices for the last 4 years.  I personally believe that a lot of normies (and perhaps almost everyone in bitcoin, too) get way too distracted by BTC spot prices, yet I can understand for sure that buying and selling is done at BTC's spot price, but still many times if we might spend 4 years or more accumulating bitcoin on a fairly regular basis (perhaps weekly-ish), then it is quite likely that our average cost per BTC would end up being quite close to the 200-WMA... and so also spot price tends to also be at least 25% above the 200-WMA.. sure no guarantees, but still not a bad way of attempting to ground oneself, even though surely right now, the current BTC spot price is right in the ballpark of 140% higher than the 200-WMA.