Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL!
by
JayJuanGee
on 02/02/2025, 16:45:06 UTC
Well it's sound funny that every ATH in the future is a dip for a new ATH for example 6_11 years from now,

I think buying bitcoin is good, because it will just go up in the future.
The thesis that I always use in investing in bitcoin is, every season or bitcoin cycle will create a new ATH (All Time High) and a new ATL (All Time Low) in each cycle, meaning that every bitcoin cycle will experience an increase from time to time, but what you need to pay attention to is the right way to invest that you must use, such as in the current situation where we are indeed at a fairly high price level from ATL and the most comfortable strategy to use is to use the DCA strategy, even though you have quite high confidence in the price of bitcoin in the future, you may have a little disturbance to your mentality when there is a price fluctuation in bitcoin, so the safest way to handle it is by using the DCA Strategy because it will help you get the DIP price rather than buying in one hit.

ATL = $0

You are misusing the term ATL, even though you seem to be largely just proclaiming that bitcoin is going to have a new ATH every cycle, then bitcoin is going to crash back down to some low point in the future, yet when you use the term ATL, you seem to be implying that the ATL could end up being lower than current prices, which truly we have no idea what the cyclical dip is going to be, and we could experience BTC prices going up 2x, 3x, 5x, 10x or more from here, but then the prices might not even dip back far enough to come back close to current prices, so there still would not be any problem buying the future dip with money that we do not have today, since with most people they are regularly receiving income, so they cannot even buy now what they have to buy in the future, since they have to wait for their income to come in. They cannot borrow against future income in a way that is meaningful or even rational to do. 

But you also seem to be talking a bit of gobble-dee-gook, even though you are emphasizing DCA you also seem to be suggesting that we some of us are going to be able to figure out how to buy the dip in order to even get better returns as compared with some kind of a more  strict DCA approach.

I don't completely disagree with your gobble-dee-gook portions, yet surely if any of us DCAing regularly we also might get to a point in our bitcoin stashing that we feel that there could be some value to holding back some value for possible dips... and surely we have to also recognize that there may well be trade-offs in regards to both considering how much value we are going to  hold back and that we might  end up being both wrong and that we end up screwing up our otherwise practice of staying focused on ongoing BTC accumulation... and sure the balance can be difficult and tempting for some of us and we might end up making mistakes due to our attempts to time either short term dips or larger cyclical dips.

Well it's sound funny that every ATH in the future is a dip for a new ATH for example 6_11 years from now,

I think buying bitcoin is good, because it will just go up in the future.
I think you misplaced your priorities in the statement. simply put, The ATHs of today would be the dip of tomorrow, and with your example of 6-11 years, I'll go with the 11 years time for the ATH we see now which is $109k to be a dip.

From history for example:
The ATH for 2013 was slightly over $1k, the ATL was as of 2019 December when it fell to $6,612. The dip was even greater than the ATH of 2013.

the ÀTH of 2017 was around $19,188, then the highest dip of 2022 which was slightly less than $16k, presenting $19k as a dip.

Again the ATH OF 2021 was slightly above $69k, we shall see what the dips of 2026 or so would present. We currently also have another ATH of $109k .

Holy shit... are  you just making up numbers?   You should be able to look the numbers rather than just making things up, and also being inaccurate with you making up shit. You got your tops correct but your bottoms are just fantasies.

Sure 2013 had a top around $1,163 and then a dip in 2014/2015 that went to about $158

You are also correct with your high of 2017 about $19,666 and then a low in late 2018 of about $3,124

The top in 2021 was $69k and the low in 2022 was $15,479..

And.. yeah so far our top has been $109k.. and most likely we will have a higher top  at some point in 2025 (perhaps various points in 2025 that drags out  until 2026, perhaps?).. then we would anticipate some large correction at some point.. but who knows, we cannot let the past models lock us into too many specifics, even though we should be able to describe the past accurately rather than just making  shit up.

From history, you can see that Bitcoin has always performed very well and most times the ATHs ends up being a dip which tells you how much of a good and profitable investment it is. It's always a good decision to invest into Bitcoin with available discretionary income consistently, have an accumulation target and a long-term holding plan.

More emphasis on the longevity of your investment to get good profits. If you look closely at my illustration, you'll see that those that invested from 2013 which is barely 12 years ago and held until now are in large profits today. It's important to invest into Bitcoin and twice as important to hold for a long-term to maximize your profits potential.

I see nothing wrong with your conclusion, even though you were just making up particular numbers - especially focusing on highs and then just making  up lows.. perhaps the lows are also important in bitcoin?