[...]
You are saying that the price would have to be $200k or greater on January 1, 2027?
[...]
A bit irrelevant comment, but I see three approaches to this time scale:
HoDLers: maintaining their stash, ladder up/down, 200-WMA going up forever. <-- Long-term WIN. <-- I am here.
Risk-takers: selling large chunk @ cycle top (Q4 2025) & re-buying @ cycle bottom (Q4 2026). <-- Risky BIG-WIN. <-- LFC is here.
Mindrusters: selling all @ local bottom ("Zed's dead baby, Zed's dead."). <-- Certain LOSS. <-- Hopefully, no WOer is here.
I've been in the same category as you but I missed two cycle tops due to my permabullishness and optimism and actual Bitcoin price never reached my price target.
So I'm kinda HOLDer/LFC wannabe guy. Therefore this year I will be selling a fraction of my stash and my sales won't be bitcoin price based they're going to be time based. I will start selling in chunks starting something like late Summer. Otherwise, I feel like I'm going to miss the top once again.