Real Madrid is a team that can perform consistently and in the matches that matter to them, they perform much better than expected. If expectations aren't high for Real Madrid this season, expectations won't be high for any other team.
I think the Spanish Super Cup final was also an important match for Real Madrid, but their performance was far from expectations. Even though Man City is in a bad period, it doesn't mean they can win the match easily, especially before this match takes place, Madrid has to face Atletico in the continuation of La Liga. Real Madrid performance depends on the strategy carried out by Ancelotti because the players' energy will be drained in the Madrid Derby to fight for first place.
That match have make a lot of concern to many people, quite right Manchester City are really in a bad shape and this alone didn't give me confidence for Real Madrid to secure victory. This kind of situation have happened in the past when rival play against each other and they tend to play has if they are playing final and they play it with a lot of seriousness, Real Madrid should expect Manchester City's best performance of the season despite their poor condition, this match really means a lot for both teams especially for Manchester City because they will want to do it for Rodri for winner Ballon d’Or over Vinicius. Vinicius also will want to play his best game to prove himself right. I can't predict this game because both are big teams and they have cases to settle.
I don't think this match has any concern or connection on Rodri, because he is still on his sick bed and Vini will be on the pitch. The match means a lot for both teams not for only City, because City has no reputation to lose but Madrid will lose their reputation for being kicked out of UCL in group stage. Madrid has the strength to win this match and City looks weaker than they were in previous season. You should bet on City to win the match if you have the confidence in them.