[...]You are saying that the price would have to be $200k or greater on January 1, 2027?
[...]
A bit irrelevant comment, but I see three approaches to this time scale:
HoDLers: maintaining their stash, ladder up/down, 200-WMA going up forever. <-- Long-term WIN. <-- I am here.
Risk-takers: selling large chunk @ cycle top (Q4 2025) & re-buying @ cycle bottom (Q4 2026). <-- Risky BIG-WIN. <-- LFC is here.
Mindrusters: selling all @ local bottom ("Zed's dead baby, Zed's dead."). <-- Certain LOSS. <-- Hopefully, no WOer is here.
Even though you seem to have had touched upon the main and/or relevant categories, I would suggest that there are probably quite a few variations of these categories - maybe even up to 10.. we have more extremes of those who buy BTC and never sell (ever) and those at the bottom who never buy ever... ...even within your LFC category.. he would likely claim to not be a risk taker since he "ONLY" sold around 25% of his stash (supposedly) in the last round, but yeah I can see how his category is different from the slower sellers...but then might be arguing nuances and perhaps talking about mindsets rather than getting into so many variations in execution.