Normally i expect  realmadrid to have a upper hand in this game even thouh both seem not be in a good form just as you've  mentioned but i'm beginning to doubt realmadrid aswell after the recent 2 games performance and at the same time Rudiger injured again.. The defence is now almost down and very weak , the current defenders lacks defending skills and it kind of sucks to watch ..
Hence, maybe i can  just see them having equal chance of winning right now although things could get wide with Realmadrid playing at home and that would be second leg, it has always repeat itself, i hope City won't allow such this time around as they seem to be allowing such lately from other teams ...