I see nothing crazy or unusual with what you explained above, they are the normal elements that must be put together to make an analysis and conclude on an informed decision to bet. This is why sports betting is more unique than casino games, you have so much information to gather, and histories to fall back on for you to know the possible outcome of events. If you also use your instinct correctly and reasonably, you are sure to win more than you lose. This is not so different from trading, we gather past information on the chart and use the impacts of the past economic events to speculate the future possibilities.