Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Re trading...I used to trade a LOT on the stock market, especially when I just started (in the late last century).
In one year i had about a 1000 trades and not very much cap gains to show, albeit I was quite 'profitable', still.
Later on, life showed me that it is not the quantity of your trades, but their quality that could give you an edge.
That was a second period with some trades, but not too many.
In bitcoin, every time I tried to trade it, it went spectacularly bad as far as timing is concerned, especially in 2017 when I listened to Vinny and sold some btc: not a large %, but still...
Basically, I sold at then ATH only to see it go up 16X in the SAME year. I did something active with the proceeds so did not "lose" all that appreciation, but it was annoying as i traded when i shouldn't had to.
After that, I practically did not trade btc at all: not selling or significant buying, just hodling and small time mining with small buying as well.
Instead, I trade stocks to 'scratch' that itch, but not too much trading occurs. In fact, I rarely even look at individual stocks midday, albeit i could never become one of the bogleheads with 70/30 VTI/BND allocation-it would bore me to smithereens.
However, lately, I start getting a bit of an urge to sell some btc, but with my prior 'history' I know that exactly when I want to sell (or soon after) btc is prone to rally
.
I guess one reason to potentially consider selling is a bad market configuration overall with SP500 being extended about 2X from the average P/E plus tariffs "war", etc, etc.
However, the timing of a mean-adjustment could take years and not affect btc prices much, eliminating the need to sell btc.
In our area, house prices seem to decline a little bit currently or at least people are getting discounts.
The economy might be slowing down a little, but it is not clear if markets would throw a fit, decline 30% and "demand" lower interest rates soon.
In such scenario, bitcoin would decline first, but then would be prone to a pop up due to new QE, just like it did in 2020.
In one year i had about a 1000 trades and not very much cap gains to show, albeit I was quite 'profitable', still.
Later on, life showed me that it is not the quantity of your trades, but their quality that could give you an edge.
That was a second period with some trades, but not too many.
In bitcoin, every time I tried to trade it, it went spectacularly bad as far as timing is concerned, especially in 2017 when I listened to Vinny and sold some btc: not a large %, but still...
Basically, I sold at then ATH only to see it go up 16X in the SAME year. I did something active with the proceeds so did not "lose" all that appreciation, but it was annoying as i traded when i shouldn't had to.
After that, I practically did not trade btc at all: not selling or significant buying, just hodling and small time mining with small buying as well.
Instead, I trade stocks to 'scratch' that itch, but not too much trading occurs. In fact, I rarely even look at individual stocks midday, albeit i could never become one of the bogleheads with 70/30 VTI/BND allocation-it would bore me to smithereens.
However, lately, I start getting a bit of an urge to sell some btc, but with my prior 'history' I know that exactly when I want to sell (or soon after) btc is prone to rally
.I guess one reason to potentially consider selling is a bad market configuration overall with SP500 being extended about 2X from the average P/E plus tariffs "war", etc, etc.
However, the timing of a mean-adjustment could take years and not affect btc prices much, eliminating the need to sell btc.
In our area, house prices seem to decline a little bit currently or at least people are getting discounts.
The economy might be slowing down a little, but it is not clear if markets would throw a fit, decline 30% and "demand" lower interest rates soon.
In such scenario, bitcoin would decline first, but then would be prone to a pop up due to new QE, just like it did in 2020.