It is a commonly known proscriptive statement that applies to a large number of funds and/or assets that tend to go up in value with the passage of time.  It surely is something that I have heard many times, and I am merely repeating, which even supports that idea exists in bitcoin that it does not really matter where you start to buy, as long as you start to buy and get started, because if you are in bitcoin for the long term, your investment has decently good chances to work itself out, even if you start investing at a time that ends up being the top.  Surely, newbies to bitcoin have such a dilemma, but they don't have any coin, yet at the same time they would prefer to have their investment to be in profits.  The preoccupation of being in profits is not important, especially in the short term, and if a newbie keeps investing regular amounts into bitcoin over a 4 year period of time, then his average investment amount will be similar to the 200-WMA amount, and the BTC price tends to be higher than the 200-WMA.. and if he keeps investing in bitcoin at a similar rate beyond 4 years, it is quite likely that his average cost per BTC is going to keep going lower and lower below the 200-WMA.. so then the question about whether he keeps investing or not does not really relate to the extent that he is in profits or not, but instead it relates to whether he has enough  or more than enough.. and surely with many normies it will take 10 years or more to really build up their bitcoin investment, even though there may be some folks (not as common) who are able to front load their investment into bitcoin and to invest more earlier in time without overly stressing their finances and/or their psychology.


There are a lot of guys who make that mistake of trying to target their entry price, and they end up either low coiners or no coiners or merely having to buy later at a higher price.  Surely some guys also get lucky and are able to identify a dip and then start to invest at that time, yet there also tends to be a problem with the mindset of guys who are ONLY seeming to look for strong entry points, they stop buying and they just wait, or maybe they just continue to hold money on the side for various times that they might be able to buy at various dips, and I really doubt that they do better since their psychology is not necessarily as committed to the investor who might choose to invest $100 every week.

Let's say that there were two guys who got into bitcoin around July 2017, and they each earned about $30k per year and each of them had about $10k in cash that they could invest into bitcoin, but they continued to earn around $30k per year.

One of the guys was trying to time his entry point, so he ended up investing $5k when the BTC price dipped to around $2,200 (2.27 BTC), and then he invested $5k a second time in around late 2018 when BTC prices dipped to $6,500 (0.77 BTC).    In mid 2020 he was able to invest another $3k at around $6,000 (0.5 BTC).. and then in September 2023 he invested another $5k around $25k (0.2 BTC), so his total invested is around $18k and he got 3.74 BTC  (average cost per BTC of $4,813) and maybe currently he is sitting on another $5k that he would like to invest, but he is waiting for an entry point.

The other similarly situated guy invested the whole $10k within a few weeks around July 2017 with an average cost of $2,500 resulting in 4 BTC, and then he just invested $100 per week from his salary from August 1, 2017 until today, which  resulted in another $39,300 invested and with another 3.1213 BTC.  So the total invested of this second guy was $49,300 with the accumulation of a total of 7.1213 BTC (with an average cost of $6,923).

Which guy would you rather be?  The one who was more aggressive and frontloaded his investment or the one who was waiting around lump summing and ultimately trying to time the market, but whimpy about his investment.  Sure they are both in profits, but which one would you  rather be?

Time in the market does tend to both have a front loading element to it, but surely not everyone is able to front load their investment, so they are just able to invest as aggressively as they can be without overdoing it and hopefully not recking themselves along the way.


It seems to be that if a person is ongoingly investing into bitcoin on a weekly basis within his finances, he is going to find himself in a much better position than the guys who are waiting for dips, especially if we are looking at the results over a couple of cycles.  In the short term, the differences might not be very different, yet in the longer run such as over a couple of cycles, the differences between the whimpy and the aggressive will become quite likely to be greater.


You seem to be pointing out why people with no coins or low coins just need to continue to stay focused on accumulating bitcoin without looking at price, as long as they assess themself to be in a situation in which they still don't have enough BTC or more than enough.

So there are even guys who have been in bitcoin for a whole cycle or even more, but if they had not been able to accumulate enough bitcoin during that time, and maybe they have only invested less than a year of their income into bitcoin (and they are mostly looking at how much the amount they invested had appreciated rather than continuing to invest), then they might be letting off or slowing down in their investment aggressiveness too early because they are distracted by the BTC price.

It can take a long time to build up a BTC stash, since even a guy with a $30k per year salary  who had been investing $100 per week (around 15% of his salary) into bitcoin would have had invested around $21k and perhaps accumulated around 0.6 BTC, and surely he might still be in a position where he need to just continue to stay focused on stacking BTC rather than reveling in his levels of profits, so far.


Sounds like a bad idea, and a waste of time and energies, including considering that Bitcoin is too liquid for what you are proposing.. .and Bitcoin is not a pump and dump shitcoin.

There are already BIG players engaged in those kinds of attempts to move and/or manipulate BTC prices, and sure they might have some temporary abilities to push the BTC price one direction or another for short periods of time, but surely it is becoming more and more difficult to accomplish any kinds of meaningful moves in the BTC price through such manipulation attempts, especially as bitcoin is growing and more and more capital has to be plugged into the manipulation attempts and to put at risk during events that may well not end up being successful and then end up recking those attempting to manipulate and getting caught on the wrong side of the trade.


Of course normal people are always going to be challenged with choosing to invest into bitcoin (or anything else) and investment money should be coming from discretionary income rather than money that is needed for expenses.  So people who have little to no discretionary income are going to be challenged to invest into bitcoin or into anything else, and if they are not sure if they have discretionary income, then they would not be able to invest and if they choose to put money into bitcoin from money they need for their expenses, then they would be trading/gambling and not investing... including that investing into bitcoin should be with a timeline of 4-10 years or longer, and without any expectations that you will necessarily get the money back, since no investment is guaranteed.. but still with bitcoin it is a place that many folks consider to have a lot of upside asymmetry, which has great chances to improve future options by investing into it..


The idea of buy and forget is not completely a bad one, including there are some automated DCA systems; however, as you point out DubemIfedigbo001 bitcoin seems to be a kind of investment that we likely need to pay attention to and to continue to learn about, including monitoring and/or managing our self custody.  Many folks also cannot just buy a lump sum and then forget about the matter, so they are regularly buying until they reach a sufficiently sized BTC stash.

Bitcoin does seem to be more of an active investment kind of category.. .. even if some folks might not need to pay as much attention to the investment (or the price) as others.