Looking at Dortmund's performance this season, I'm not sure Dortmund will be favored to win the match. Looking at their performance in the Bundesliga is also very bad, if the h2h of both teams a few seasons ago, maybe when Dortmund's performance was still good they could be superior. But right now they are not good enough.
But everything could change when Dortmund can no longer hope for the Bundesliga and try to do their best in the Champions League, indeed their performance in the Champions League is not bad, but I'm still not sure Dortmund will be favored in the match.
Borussia Dortmund last season went as far as making it to the finals of the champions league which they were defeated only in that match. This season have not been a bad one for them from their performance so far in the champions league, but they’re much dominated in the champions league than they are in the Bundesliga. I have really seen their play this season and when we want to rate them with the way they play, they’ll likely not make it that far in this champions league and may be eliminated sooner. But football is full of surprises, I hope they get the best in the remaining matches left for them in the competition.
Madrid have been considered as the rulers of the UCL because of their mentality and experience, so it is not surprising that they are the favourites to win the UCL this season even before the UCL starts, but after seeing the condition and performance of their team this season in the group phase, I actually began to doubt if they could qualify from the play offs, not because they faced a team as big as Manchester City, but because the depth of the squad they have at the moment is very bad, especially their defence after many defenders have suffered injuries, indeed the condition of manchester city is also no different from madrid, but they are actually better with the recruitment of players in the January transfer market, while madrid precisely did nothing in the transfer market this season to strengthen their squad.
Past history cannot be used to give favoring hand to Real Madrid in this competition. They are the team with the most trophies in the competition and they always find their way to the finals of the competition no matter their condition that season. In this season, they seem more weak and reluctant in their performance and that has caused them to be more weakened and seen as a weaker team to Manchester City and may not make it to the finals of the champions league this season. They may pull something up but at the moment, this is the best I think they can do.