Well yeah I think that you have largely described the terms even though the amount seems so small to almost be insignificant. To clarify, the outside date would be on or before December 31, 2026 - probably using midnight UTC on Bitstamp as our reference.
Not everyone is rich like you JJG. Where I live it's a very decent amount. You were asking for 10:1 odds, I happily gave it to you. Anything pending at my end?
So, maybe we should use round numbers? You would put 0.0003 BTC into the fund (potentially held by hisslyness), and I would put 0.00003 into the fund. We could add a bit for transaction fees (or if hisslyness tells us that he has some kind of a fee or a minimum amount, then he could tell us about that.. or maybe if we each add 1% to the amount we send hisslyness that will cover any fees), yet we also could send our amounts to hisslyness in a lightning address. I think that it might be more difficult to keep the amounts segregated in a lighting wallet address, but if we send the amounts on chain, then we cannot know the fees at the time of the payout.. but we could see the values on chain.
Of course if you hire someone escrow service then you have to pay the fee. You just pay the fee in this case rather then pledging anything. The house has to be paid something to run the business smoothly.
Just to reiterate:
The bet would close out in your favor (with me paying you 0.00003 BTC / 3,000 satoshis) on two possible conditions: 1) the BTC price goes above $333,333 on Bitstamp or 2) the time goes beyond 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026, and the BTC price had not gone below $90k on Bitstamp.
The bet would close in my favor (with you paying me 0.0003 BTC / 30,000 satoshis ) if the BTC price touches any price below $90,000 on Bitstamp before 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026.
Details must be clear.
Who knows what Bitcoin will be on 31st Dec 202?. This insignificant amount (for you) might be worth much more then it' today's value.
If we skip the escrow (skip involving hisslyness) then we would have to give each other a bitcoin address (lightning seems more feasible) at the time the bet closes.. and just figure that the amount received would have to include fees already having had been paid by the sender... .
I am open for that also i.e. P2P
That is true that if I were not to pledge anything on my end, then it is like you are just pledging on your end and showing that you have even greater confidence that sub-$90k will never be breached.. .almost like a reflection of your confidence that sub-$90k will "never" be breached.
I am doubtful Bitcoin will be below 90k from here. Don't know why you don't think that way.
In another instance, I recall in about late March 2019 when the BTC price was merely in the $3,900s, and JSRaw proclaimed that sub $3,900 was never going to be breached again, and I chided him for his asserted level of confidence, and he ended up being correct until March 12, 2020, we ended up getting a red candle that spike for a few minutes down to $3,850.. hahahahahaha.. He was mostly correct, but technically he ended up being wrong for just a few minutes and nearly a year later.
That's why I said there is nothing certain for Bitcoin, it's all about prediction which can or can't be true. Not even you are certain about the price, you also make predictions which can or can not be true. I think fundamentals don't play much role in bitcoin, it can go up on its own and down on its own.