Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL!
by
JayJuanGee
on 12/02/2025, 20:34:26 UTC
It appears that some investors may not really understand what it means to hit a state of overaccumulation or a fuck you status, some believe they’re ready to start withdrawing when they’ve stashed out a good amount of Bitcoin, which is absolutely false. If an investor is still seeking to get his hand on more bitcoin and still wish to accumulate more, then that’s a pretty good sign that they’re yet to hit a state of overaccumulation and therefore not a good time to start initiating a withdrawal because they’re still pretty much in an accumulation phase, which is a pretty wrong time to thingk about using or withdrawing their Bitcoin.

Yeah, many people often think that this overaccumulation state is when they’ve managed to accumulate a lot of Bitcoins, they mostly feel they’ve reached this stage before they actually do get there, so it’s good to remember that the take home from this is that, when an investor still feel the desire to accumulate more bitcoin, that’s a pretty good sign that they’re yet to reach that state.
I believe the over accumulation status has it's reference on your accumulation target, whether you've exceeded it or week within it.
Let's take for example, someone with a target of accumulating 15BTC, ends up getting 20BTC before their holding period terminated. Such a person is now in his over accumulation phase.

Now considering the fact that the person desires to have even more BTC to his portfolio and resets his accumulation target to 30BTC, then such a person switches from being in over accumulation stage to being in an ongoing accumulation process and should abide by the principles of consistent, committed and aggressive purchases until he reaches his new target, possibly surpasses it and returns to an over accumulation stage again.
I think setting a target of reaching a particular amount when accumulating Bitcoin is okay however to avoid being tempted to withdraw when you reach that account so quick is better we set a target of accumulating and holding for a particular year maybe 5 to 10 years or even more will be better, the reason why I'm saying these is because what determine how successful you may be in your Bitcoin investment journey is not the reaching a particular amount but holding and waiting till Bitcoin breaks a great price record.
setting a target of a particular amount to reach when accumulating BTC is not okay, only an investor without a vision of investment can do that, an investor who is committed and know what he or she is doing we never set aside a particular amount he or she will reach when accumulated BTC.
That why there is something call discretionary income, this is the income you we use for your investment.
And Also know that emergency fund is needed for the smooth running of your investment, to enable you buy your BTC and hold for long term.
I think you are confusing your self because I don't see any connection with your first paragraph and your second.
Yes I said setting a target of reaching a particular BTC amount is okay and I also said however to avoid being tempted to withdraw when you reach that account so quick is better we set a target of accumulating and holding for a particular year maybe 5 to 10 years or even more will be better.
Dee_BlackdAddy you can't say setting a target of reaching a particular BTC amount is totally a wrong strategy because one can set a BTC amount target that can even take more than 10 or 20 years to achieve so In a case like this how is it a wrong strategy, when Bitcoin was $1k there may be investors who set a target of accumulating and holding till Bitcoin hits $100k if any investors back then did this I don't see anything wrong with that.

Since both BTC price and  the value of the dollar (and other fiat) are continuously moving, then it seems reasonable to consider targets in terms of how many years of income you need in your BTC portfolio.. so traditionally that has been anywhere between 10 to 30 years of income/expenses, even though I personally believe that you can get by with 10 years on your bitcoin investment value if you are using the 200-WMA to valuate your BTC holdings. 

So then you have more options once you know that you are able to sustain yourself perpetually off of your BTC holdings.  Sometimes guys might not be comfortable with merely meeting their threshold accumulation number, and  they would prefer to reach some  kind of overaccumulation status in order to have enough cushion.  So guys can make mistakes in regards to either not having enough or having too much.  We should also realize that bitcoin has been appreciating in  value so well over the years, so that even if we might feel that we need 18.17 BTC right now, as our minimum entry into fuck you status, we may well reasonably calculate that in about two years, we might need ONLY around 10 BTC or fewer in order to be at the same (or a very similar) status as 18.17 BTC puts us at today.  Yep we can get the calculations wrong, and yep, we may well need to account for some cushionary considerations to make sure that we don't end up under estimating how many BTC that we actually might need at various points in time, yet at the same time, we are able to measure an monitor those kinds of BTC stacking matters as we go and to come to make various tweaks along the way in order to make sure that we don't make mistakes that are grossly wrong.

[edited out]
In my own perspective, I think that setting an accumulation target like ten to  fifteen years is not a problem, where the problem is, is setting a target by figure, like example; you will say you want to accumulate like $50k worth of Bitcoin in ten to fifteen years time from now, that's what I think is the problem, because by doing so you are limiting yourself to a certain amount which I believe that if the target is set by timeframe, you stands to accumulate more Bitcoin than you can ever imagined, but if it's set by numbers, their is a higher probability of you stopping if your target is met fast or your stash look bigger in your eyes.

So while accumulating it is of our best interest to accumulate and hodl by timeframe instead of numbers, because due to the huge potential of Bitcoin, it can easily breach the number target we have, and we might be compel to sell prematurely when it's no where near it peak price.
And the typical example of that is investors that sold at $72k thinking that it's closer to the top or their target has been met, but those that are still holding till now are in a massive profit already because their timeframe target is not met yet which they may even earn more, as the years goes by.

There is nothing wrong with having both dollar value targets and also time targets,  and surely there may also need to be some flexibility involved in terms of assessing the extent to which the unit of value might be changing, since most likely there is likely a certain level of sustainability that a guy might want to achieve, such as if he wants to be able to achieve $1k per month of income (without having to work - so from his BTC), but  then if he is thinking $1k per month in today's dollars, then he might need to account for $1k today might buy twice as much as $1k in 8 years, so he may have to account for those kinds of matters too.  The guy might have specific reasons for both his value accumulation target and for his time target, but he has to attempt to be realistic too.. so that he is likely going to be in a much better position if his value accumulation exceeds his target rather than if it underachieves, which is another reason for the benefits of attempting to be realistic and even conservative in chosen targets and then to have satisfactions in overachieving previously set targets. 

In other words, the mere fact that a guy feels that he reaches his value  target prior to the time target should not indicate that he necessarily needs  to abandon his mission,  since it is most likely that the guy has given himself more options when he reaches his value target early, and also sure, if he doubts himself, then he can recalculate or maybe change the target, or he might be happy just to have some satisfaction of exceeding his target rather than underperforming his target.

I doubt that any of the things you mentioned need to be learned prior to getting started investing into bitcoin.  A person can start investing into bitcoin and figure out the various topics that you mentioned as they are investing, whether they start with $10 per week or some other amount that they consider as a reasonable way to get started, and so it seems to me that getting started is one of the main things, and  all you need to know is whether you have some discretionary income, like $10 and then you can get started and figure out the details as you go, and the more you learn, the more likely that you would be ready, willing and/or able to increase your weekly investment amount and/or to make any other adjustments based on ongoing learning.
This is quite understandable and considerd as the best advice perhaps Rome was not built in a day, a typical example of life reproduction stages can be a very good example, from fertilization process to an adult we can see that there is a necessity of one stage to occur before the others, getting started should be a priority when we have the disposable income available, and to crown it all the idea and concept of the DCA strategy should be taken advantage as an incentive towards the long term goals and objectives.
  accumulating large portion of BTC can't be possible with only one strategy, because with only one strategy you we surely be tempted to make a withdrawal when needs arise,
You are wrong one can accumulate large portion of Bitcoin using only one strategy, I see you really don't understand what different strategy is all about when it comes to bitcoin accumulation because if you do you won't make such statement, now if you are only using the DCA strategy to accumulate Bitcoin weekly or monthly are you saying you won't be able to accumulate large portion of Bitcoin if you continue with it for a long period of time, and you said if someone use only one strategy he or she will surely be tempted to make a withdrawal when needs arise makes me wonder if you truly understand the different strategy we have, Because I don't understand how using a strategy such as the DCA strategy will make you sell, withdraw or dip hands into your Bitcoin, there are a lot of people who have accumulated enough or large portion of Bitcoin using just one strategy, it is when one has accumulated enough Bitcoin he or she can decide to change strategy, for example if someone was using the DCA strategy and with it he accumulated enough Bitcoin and reaching a fuck you stage where even if he don't work his accumulated Bitcoin can take care of him, he may decide to change strategy to buying during any dip, the point is you can use only one strategy that you are comfortable with to accumulate a large portion of Bitcoin, no need changing from one strategy to another the only reason why you should change a strategy is when you are not comfortable with it and is not helping you grow your Bitcoin.

Sure there are some guys who might feel that it is better to set a very strict  strategy and strictly weekly buy amount in place, yet I doubt that any of us needs to be be preoccupied with any particular mandate from the outside, even though becoming  persistent, consistent, regular and perhaps even aggressive can be helpful  as long as back up funds are also in place, and those kinds of strategies come mostly from DCA and lump sum buying, yet of course, we can also hold back some funds for buying on the dip, yet the main points are that we tailor our level of aggressiveness to our personal circumstances, and surely some strategies are going to be be better than others in terms of reaching our goals if we set some specific goals, then we work within our personal finances and psychology to achieve such goals within our timeframe and/or personal parameters.

If we have around $600 to $1,800 of monthly income, and $800 to $1,200 in expenses, then we have quite a bit of variability in our cashflow and quite a bit of variability in the level of our discretionary income, and we likely are going to be in a better position to prepare for possible months that our income might be low and our expenses high.. so we need a cash cushion and back up funds to prepare for the worse situations (and that is not even emergency funds, that is the amount of difference between expenses and income that might come from time to time.. and sure maybe as an individual we might know some of that in advance, like we already know how our expenses and income vary in their amounts).. and likely our emergency fund should be built up to reach a minimum of $3,600 (which is 3 months based on the worst case scenarios), and we would be working on building up our emergency fund and probably while we are also investing in bitcoin, yet we would likely want to  get at least our emergency fund up to 3 months before we are able to really start being aggressive in our bitcoin investment, even if we might target trying to accumulate $100 per week, which ends up being around $433 per month. So it could  take this kind of a person many months, perhaps even a year or so before he has built his BTC investment and his emergency  fund to be each equal to 3 months of his expenses.

To my own knowledge on buy the Dip,and HODL.it has to do with investing buying Bitcoin and keeping it is one part,people feel is just buying Bitcoin and hodl.but on question to ask how patient are you to hodl.your patient might not be the same of mine.so it takes discipline on the highest other.and mind you you don't invest on Bitcoin with you all of what you have,cause you will definitely can not be patient.if am not mistaken I feel with my own experience investing in bitcion.is better you have some other  asset to fall to daily,and keep you mind lost out of your bitcion investment.And just stay and observe for as long a you can.
Since bitcoin is a long-term investment, before people invest their money in bitcoin, they should be able to figure out the amount of bitcoin they want to accumulate and how many years they intend to hold their bitcoin so that they will know how they can discipline themselves to accumulate bitcoin in such a way that they can easily hold their bitcoin for the long term without passing through difficult times to do that. It is even advisable for investors to invest in bitcoin with the money they will not need for 4-10 years or more or with the money they can afford to lose so that they will not depend on their bitcoin investment to survive since they won't be using the money that is meant to cover up for their living expenses to invest in bitcoin.
Proper planning is required before doing any work.  At least if an investor is planning to invest in Bitcoin, he should think about whether he will make his investment long-term or how long he will hold his investment even if he does long-term. If there is a specific plan in terms of investment then one can move forward slowly according to that plan. Just as planning is necessary to complete any construction work, pre-planning is very important to make the investment self-sustainable. Usually in DCA investing method it is not important when you invest but the important thing about this strategy is that you have to invest consistently. 
In this investment strategy generally an investor can invest consistently based on his income and expenses. This investment strategy is now very easy and effective even for those who earlier found investment very difficult.

A guy does not have to plan prior to getting started investing into bitcoin.  To get started all he needs to figure out is if he has $10 that is available within his discretionary income or not.  If he knows that he has $10, then he can get started.  In relation to bitcoin, a lot of people have the problem of failing/refusing to get started. So getting started seems to be the most important of anything, and  the planning and the organizing and figuring out if a guy has $10 every week to continue to invest into bitcoin, that can be worked out as the newbie goes, and sure he may  well have to start out slow while he is figuring out how aggressive he might be able to be in regards to his bitcoin investing that he is just starting to do every week-ish..

I think that when investing in Bitcoin, it is necessary to know all the things related to Bitcoin. For example, you need to have all the ideas related to the Bitcoin market, how long you need to invest, you need to know all kinds of content. So that you can easily make a profit by investing, when investing in Bitcoin, you should remember that instead of investing in a short time, you should try to invest for a period of 4 to 12 years. Because in that case, your risk of loss will be greatly reduced.

I think that if you have experience in Bitcoin, you will easily become a successful investor very quickly.

You don't need to know any of these above-mentioned things before getting started investing into bitcoin.  In the beginning, all you need to know, to get started, is whether you have $10 of discretionary income that you can put into bitcoin, to get started.  And, yes discretionary income means that you don't need it for your expenses.... so similar to if you were to buy a some cigarettes for $10, but instead you bought $10 worth of bitcoin with that money and skip the $10 of cigarettes, since those cigarettes were  optional consumption  items.. you did not need them,  but instead you chose to use that $10 to buy bitcoin. Therefore, you have gotten started.