Everything is relative. Any of my bet may look crazy for outsider but if I believe in it then it is very logical for me especially if the given bet resulted from the careful preliminary analysis of different alternatives.
I mean not really. Some gamblers know their predictions look crazy. But they are fine with it because they usually just bet for fun. Drake sometimes bets on some crazy options. Some gamblers don’t even use real analysis sometimes hence why it might look like their predictions are crazy.
Thus I would not consider any bet made by anybody as the insane one. Instead I would prefer to regard them as to be either logical or non-reasonable at my angle. Needless to say that both logical and non-reasonable bets may result in big pay off. This is the way the luck is working.
You just made a nicer word for crazy. Unreasonable is still crazy especially if you are dealing with money here.