Certainly it is completely your choice, and I am not sure if I need to lecture much further, even though it can be difficult to resist.  

In bitcoin, there are so many folks in bitcoin historically who had failed/refused to stack BTC because they were overly focused on cost per BTC, and so there are many ways to show historically realistic examples of financially similar folks, yet one was more aggressively stacking and the other one was waiting for dips and trying to be strategic about it. If we go over a longer timeline, frequently the more aggressive guy will end up with way more BTC, even though his costs per BTC would likely be higher than the less aggressive guy.  

So just consider two guys who started 8 years ago in 2017.  They each started with a lump sum of money of maybe $6k, and they each had an income in which they could invest  $100 per week.  The whimpy guy was continuously waiting for opportunities, and  the more aggressive guy invested all of his $6k right away and then invested $100 per week into bitcoin.

Let's say that the more aggressive guy ended up buying around 3 BTC with his initial $6k, and then over the next 8 years until now, with his $100 per week, he had invested an additional $41,800 and he accumulated an additional 4.6501 BTC.  So into total he has invested $47,800, and he has accumulated 7.6501 BTC.  I  have doubts that the whimpy guy or the waiter would have  similar results in his attempt to time the market, and I doubt that he  would have had invested as much  as the aggressive guy, and he  may well may have ended up with less than half as much BTC.  Sure you can make up scenarios that the whimpy waiter guy could have had outperformed the aggressive guy, but I doubt that your scenarios would be realistic in terms of our attempts to describe (and capture) personality types that are related to how convicted a person is in relation to bitcoin and whether and how they act upon such conviction.

I doubt that bitcoin's investment thesis is weaker today as compared to what it was in early 2017, and at all times in bitcoin's history there have been various levels of uncertainty.

Another thing is that if you are investing into bitcoin regularly (like weekly), then your regularly reinforcement of the practice of buying bitcoin helps to both build and to reinforce your level of conviction in regards to your investment into bitcoin.


It does not seem productive to be attempting to plan your BTC accumulation upon what bitcoin may or may not do, since none of us knows the future, even if some of us end up being more right than others, yet directionally, we can still get some ideas about bitcoin inclining upwardly, whether we have any price corrections from here or whether we have an exponential price rise from here or not.

I doubt that a waiting strategy is helpful, even if you start to focus on buying $100 per week in bitcoin, and you spend several months doing that, and then the BTC price drops to $70k, and then you get mad at yourself because you had been buying bitcoin for 40% to 80% higher over the previous several months.

There can be ways that you have a focus on mostly buying, so that you hedge in both directions, and if your budget for buying BTC is $100 per week, maybe you just buy $70 per week, and you save the other $30 per week for dips that may or may not end up happening.  If no dip happens for 3 months, then at that point you might have close to $400 in your buying on dip fund.    Also if you get a bonus of $2k, then maybe you continue with the same proportions, you use $1,400 to buy bitcoin right away, and you put $600 in your buying on dip account. Surely, you can choose your parameters in regards to how much to put in each fund, and also how much of a dip that you would need to buy on dips with your buying on dip funds.  

I personally get the impression that you have been overly whimpy in your DCAing, and you should figure out ways to become more aggressive in your ongoing and regular investing into BTC and to be less focused on what you believe the BTC price may or may not do.  You can put systems into place in which you don't really  have to decide. You buy within your formula every week and you put into your buy on dip fund that also has some reasonable formulas.  

Maybe you will tell me that your discretionary income numbers are not the same as the ones that I provided, yet you can adjust your numbers to account for your quantity and also for the fact that maybe you have irregular income and/or irregular expenses, so that you have to figure out your available amounts for BTC based on such irregularities.. There is nothing wrong with that. Each of us should be able to  establish systems to figure out how much we have available.

We also are not able to be aggressive in our bitcoin investment if we do not have various backup funds and emergency funds in place, so sometimes we will have to build up our back up funds in order that  we are able to be as aggressive as we are able to be without over doing it.... and We should not be  putting ourselves in situations in which we are having to tap into our emergency funds... and our bitcoin investment also should not be serving any part of our emergency funds, since our emergency funds need to be 3 months of expenses in our local currency.


If you have not reached a status of overaccumulation in your BTC stash size, then you should not be selling any BTC and you should still be accumulating BTC.  You seem to be wanting to trade to buy back cheaper, but you don't want to make any mistake, and I have difficulties suggesting any selling prior to reaching overaccumulation status.

Sure it could  be that you are also motivated by not having any other investments to offset your BTC, such as emergency funds  and other back up funds.

I have a hard time believing anyone could have reached overaccumulation status with less than 4 years, but if you are feeling that you have too much BTC,  then you might want to shave off some portion  of your stash to feel more balanced.

Maybe an example could help?  If you are investing 10% of your income into bitcoin, it would take you 10 years to reach 1 year worth of your income invested into bitcoin, and sure of course, bitcoin may well could have appreciated in value during that time, and so your earlier years of investment would have grown more and compounded upon themselves as compared to your later investment amounts.  It takes time in the market for the investment to compound in value upon itself, yet if you have ONLY been investing less than a whole cycle then it is difficult to imagine that you would have invested more than a year of your income into bitcoin (unless you were investing 25% per year or somehow front loading your bitcoin investment), yet you seem to be concerned about the BTC going up in value rather than strictly considering how much you had invested...yet sure they are both factors, yet people have problem building wealth when they cannot  let their investment ride and they continue to withdraw from  their investment, so they end up stifling their investment and its abilities to compound upon itself... which seems to be what you are inclined to do based on your overly preoccupation on BTC price  rather  than continuing to let your investment ride and to add to it.

You have to figure out for yourself how you can be able to both let your bitcoin investment ride and  to continue to add to it, especially since it is quite likely that you have not yet reached an overaccumulation status.


Sure, it is true that in the short term, we cannot know BTC price direction nor how extreme BTC price moves might go in either direction, and surely $300k is ONLY a 3x price appreciation from here, which has happened many times in bitcoin's history and is surely within the realm of possible, even if it might not have high odds... especially for this quarter.  

I personally get frustrated talking with guys about trading ideas rather than investing ideas, and so you have so many trading ideas and seeming inabilities to figure out long term ideas that might be 4-10 years or longer.

If we are talking past each other, and you are just figuring out ways to try to trade these moves prior to your even have had stayed focus on building your BTC stash, then we are thinking about bitcoin in different ways.

You may have seen posts from me in which I describe selling BTC as a way to take off some extra value and to provide downside insurance.  I don't consider selling BTC in order to  be able to buy back lower or with expectations to buy back lower...so that is part of the reason that I continue to harp on the need to reach a status of overaccumulation before incorportating selling into any bitcoin management strategy.

If you had invested a whole years income into bitcoin over the past 4 years, and then bitcoin went up 10x, then you would have 10 years of income invested into bitcoin, yet that would be spot price values, which we know are uncertain.  

if you invested a similar amount into bitcoin on a weekly basis over the past 4 years, then your average cost per  BTC would be in the ballpark of the 200-WMA - which is currently around  $44k, so then right now, your profits above the 200-WMA are in the ballpark of more than 2x, and yeah, if the BTC price went up to $440k, then you would be 10x in profits,  but then there still would be a question regarding  how much you put in, and if you merely put in less than 6 months of your income during that time, then you would have ONLY 5 years of income in bitcoin, yet at BTC spot prices, which we know tend to be quite volatile, especially if they were to go up to $440k in this cycle.