Post
Topic
Board Development & Technical Discussion
Re: A probabilistic prefix search - puzzle btc 32
by
mcdouglasx
on 15/02/2025, 20:11:06 UTC
so u trying to find prefix hex of the address?

yes, prefix h160.

Given that the probability of obtaining the first 4 digits of a hex "abcd" is 1/65536, the probability of finding 5 repeated prefixes "abcde" within the same range occurs with at least a 3% frequency.

False. It's basically 0% likely to encounter at least 5 "abcde" prefixes in a 65536 range.
What is true: it is 93.94% likely to not encounter any "abcde" prefix at all in a 65536 range.
Hence, 6.06% likely to encounter it at least once.
But, only 0.19% likely to find it more than once.

Where did you end up with the 3%?

Therefore, if we discard 65536 keys around a 5-digit prefix, we have a 97% probability that the prefix is not within the omitted range.

You have a 100% probability that the prefix is in the range, because it's sitting in the middle of it. It was just found, or is the range not "around a 5-digit prefix"?

One would say that you are mixing formulas that relate to birthday paradox (collide any two persons) with the formulas that relate to finding a specific person, and calling this pruning as valid. It is not, neither from a probabilistic or logical perspective. But good luck with your experiments!

You fall into the same negligence as the mathematicians against Marilyn vos Savant. 3% of 65536 is almost 2000, which is approximately the number of times 5 identical prefixes collide in 65536 keys. The script above demonstrates it, did you bother to try it? The rest of your questioning is a misinterpretation of the statistics that AI is not yet capable of understanding. That is to say, if the Monty Hall paradox were eliminated from AI and the internet, AI would never have given the solution because it is counterintuitive.

Similarly, you made it clear in another post that we will never agree on this, so I don't know why you want to continue an endless debate. Where I believe I'm right, and you do too, it would be a waste of our time.