Most normies are going to need more than a whole cyle to build their BTC stack to a decently sufficient size, even if they might be in a position to front load their BTC investment., and many do not realize that dynamic.

Sure, there may be some folks who are able to draw from other places, and to really get to sufficiently decent  BTC stack size and perhaps even to overallocate prior to going through a whole bitcoin cycle, and those people are  exceptions, so  any newbie investor does need to consider which category he falls and to assess his own circumstances.

Of course, another aspect of bitcoin, even for those who are able to achieve a status of over-accumulation is the compounding effect of bitcoin, so sometimes there can be quite a bit of payoff from just staying into the bitcoin investment  for more than a whole cycle and perhaps even a couple of cycles.. Yet, the guy who reaches  over-accumulation does have a lot more options, and there is no one set formula for how to  deal with  having had gotten such over-accumulation status.


Even though you are surely responsible for figuring out your own balance, even if you end up getting it wrong.. hahahahahah.. but yeah, for sure, it sounds better if you are figuring out some kind of way that you can prepare yourself financially and psychologically for both directions (either direction).  I frequently assert that if you can prepare yourself financially, the psychological part should mostly follow.

So my understanding if you are keeping 70% of the  value of your BTC investment portfolio in bitcoin, and the other 30% in  cash, and so if you have any new income, such as $100 per  week, you  will put 70% into bitcoin and 30% into cash.  So then with your cash portion you have some parameters that you have described for yourself how you will spend it (perhaps on dips), and so if there is no dips for a while that meet your satisfaction that 30% portion that you keep setting aside will continue to build up until it meets your requirements.  So, depending on how strict are your requirements, then you  might end up depleting and/or getting out of balance from time to time  based  on changed market conditions.

Let's say for example you had been buying $100 per week in bitcoin over the past 3.5 years since you got into bitcoin, so therefore you would have had invested  around $19.5k and you would have accumulated about 0.5552 BTC, and maybe you have already put your emergency fund in place that is 3 months of your expenses, and you might have some other back up funds (so you have been employing good cash management practices). ^**  Let's say that you also have already saved an extra $2k for buying dips.. but you  had  been hesitant to  invest it into bitcoin. 

**Note: I am just making this up as a kind of better case scenario, which you may or may have not been able to achieve these kinds of things,  but just to give some guideline ideas.

Of course in the above scenario your 0.5552 BTC would have a spot price value of $54k-ish,  and a 200-WMA value of $24.5k.   So you could consider your 30% cash reallocation based on either value, and yeah, perhaps you had  already taken such action to shave some of your BTC based on those considerations, but if you had not shaved any then surely  shaving 30% might be a lot to  shave.. but I have my suspicions that  you probably have not been aggressively  accumulating bitcoin over the past 3.5 years, so you have likely been keeping decent amounts of cash..but then maybe some  of that cash cannot be allocated towards possible bitcoin buys but instead making sure that your emergency fund and any other back up funds were sufficiently being kept.

Surely there are tradeoffs for allocation size choices, yet the main thing is that you find sufficient balance in your ways of allocating and if you might  change your allocations from time to time based your changes in sentiment and/or your financial circumstances.