I think it will be an even game and with Pakistan playing the game in the home ground, ICC tournament coming to their country after a long time, there would be another sort of feeling and atmosphere. On paper, New Zealand team may be strong but on the Pakistan home ground , you can't say with confidence, if they (NZ) would win that first match or not.
Honestly, I don't think so at all. Pakistan is heavily dependent on their middle order batsmen while New Zealand's top and middle order are firing on all cylinders these days. The Kiwis have a better bowling lineup too.
This is why Pakistan's home ground advantage won't really help them much in this particular tournament.