Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
I am a bit bemused by the current 'crab market' despite the multitude of bullish announcements.
Consider these two:
1. Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund is $1.7 tril and recently bought $436 mil btc (in a form of ETF). $436 mil is about 0.026%. Now, Larry Fink have said that someone (my read it was a sov wealth fund) had discussed with him whether the "proper" allocation should be 2% or 5%.
Do the math...Abu Dahbi would have to buy 80X (additional 33.1 bil) to get to 2% and 192X ($83.4bil) to get to 5%.
The current total in IBIT is 59bil.
2. Recent from M.Saylor: https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/michael-saylor-predicts-5-million-btc-price
Apart from the price, he predicts that relatively soon you would be able to get a loan at SOFR+0.5% for your bitcoin, so there would be NO need to sell. Sofr is currently around 4.3-4.35%.
My explanation for the crab market is that OGs got PTSD from the 2021-2022 "fiasco" (bull market under-performance) and they decided to sell early this time and the price around 100K seems OK to them since it is still about 40-50% higher than in 2021.
I don't have a link handy (maybe will find it later), but iI have seen some data suggesting that "old" holders are selling, but new "whales" (like Abu Dahbi, presumably) are buying.
Make a call...I know what mine is...hodling, of course
Consider these two:
1. Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund is $1.7 tril and recently bought $436 mil btc (in a form of ETF). $436 mil is about 0.026%. Now, Larry Fink have said that someone (my read it was a sov wealth fund) had discussed with him whether the "proper" allocation should be 2% or 5%.
Do the math...Abu Dahbi would have to buy 80X (additional 33.1 bil) to get to 2% and 192X ($83.4bil) to get to 5%.
The current total in IBIT is 59bil.
2. Recent from M.Saylor: https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/michael-saylor-predicts-5-million-btc-price
Apart from the price, he predicts that relatively soon you would be able to get a loan at SOFR+0.5% for your bitcoin, so there would be NO need to sell. Sofr is currently around 4.3-4.35%.
My explanation for the crab market is that OGs got PTSD from the 2021-2022 "fiasco" (bull market under-performance) and they decided to sell early this time and the price around 100K seems OK to them since it is still about 40-50% higher than in 2021.
I don't have a link handy (maybe will find it later), but iI have seen some data suggesting that "old" holders are selling, but new "whales" (like Abu Dahbi, presumably) are buying.
Make a call...I know what mine is...hodling, of course