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Everything is relative. Any of my bet may look crazy for outsider but if I believe in it then it is very logical for me especially if the given bet resulted from the careful preliminary analysis of different alternatives. Thus I would not consider any bet made by anybody as the insane one. Instead I would prefer to regard them as to be either logical or non-reasonable at my angle. Needless to say that both logical and non-reasonable bets may result in big pay off. This is the way the luck is working.
You're right sometimes the analysis we make about a particular event can even fail us at the end, why those that don't even make any analysis before betting will end up getting a good result. of course I have seen a situation like this before, This is why as a gambler is always advisable to gamble with what you can afford to lose. because no matter the analysis we make towards gambling as long as luck is not on your side you will definitely experience lose in gamble.
Is just like those people who always talk about having confident in gamble, without knowing that there's nothing like confident in gamble. for the fact that one experience win in gamble doesn't mean that is due to the confident he has towards that event that made him win, obviously gamble is just a luck based believe it or not.
I'm not sure if confidence helps or hurts the gambler game
because you can be overconfident and march straight to the abyss so it's not always a good thing
it's way more about luck, a little bit about skills and a lot about risk management and bankroll managament