...
The match cannot be easily decided by this few points you’ve given on this game. Both teams appear to be very confidence in tonight’s match and will all go with full force in order to secure a big victory in the match today. The first leg already favoured Real Madrid but still on this, they still have a very tough match today because the favour they got in that match is not enough for them to feel relax in today’s match, they can easily be defeated and overthrown today by Manchester City if they’re not careful. Real Madrid also have an home advantage in the match today but the Santiago Bernabeau stadium is not a guarantee for them to earn victory today without putting in their best efforts in the game today. I won’t compare this teams with what they showcase in the premier league, let Manchester City play to their maximum in order to get a victory tonight and make it to the next round of the competition.
I agree with you, Manchester City is not a team that just played against Real Madrid in the UCL yesterday, each other is familiar with each other's strengths and weaknesses, only luck will be the deciding factor at the end of this match, so even though Real Madrid will be the host, Manchester City's chances of winning are still quite large.
According to the majority of gambling sites, Real Madrid's chances of winning are 49% - draw 23% - Manchester City 28% (but that's only on paper, the final result cannot be determined precisely)