The (TOTAL3-USDT)/BTC ratio is one of the best indicators for spotting an "altcoin season." While the current retrace to the range bottom has been prolonged, I believe we still have some time—and more bleeding—to go through.
I’m also hoping to see a shift in quantitative tightening (QT) around these range lows, which would strengthen the case for an altcoin season. Compared to the 2021 cycle, which lasted roughly 1.5 years, this retrace has already stretched close to 3 years.
What’s making this market particularly awkward and unique is the general market’s attempt to fight this retrace. It’s creating a lot of uncertainty, and honestly, anything could happen at this point. While I highly doubt it, even a Fed pivot into quantitative easing (QE) isn’t entirely off the table.
That said, I still believe altcoin season is yet to come. History tends to rhyme, and this cycle won’t be any different.
people are too much in a hurry wanting altseason to come as fast as possible, truth is maybe bitcoin dominance most likely retrace when it hits 70% which means there might be another wave of retracement happening for altcoin.
even if altcoin season somehow happen out of the blue, I have firm believe that not all altcoin gonna go up, just like how previous little retracement to BTC.D happened where only coin like XRP, and other top coin is going up, the rest just stuck in their ATL.
at this point I'd just prefer to convert my money to BTC first.