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There is no trader that is certain about the variation in price of bitcoin but rather all they do is speculation, the same way nobody can predict the future, same no one can predict the price variation of bitcoin know matter what tools they may use In there analysis.Trading and gambling are the same thing because they are same, gamblers are trying to predict the outcome of a match while traders are trying to predict the change in price of bitcoin and they both have same motive which is to make quick profit. So no one can predict exactly the price change of bitcoin and get it right all the time, early October some one was sepuculating that the price will dip to $35k with enough tools to backup his claims, however even with his analysis I told him I don't see the price of bitcoin going to $35k that this is mere speculation.
It is clear that it is completely impossible to make an accurate prediction of the market. The predictions that traders make are also just guesses, they cannot say anything for sure. Therefore, traders make a short-term trading of Bitcoin by making a prediction, but its risk tendency is always very high. Such traders always have a high probability of losing money. Because Bitcoin is a market that fluctuates more than expected in the short term, trading in Bitcoin is always full of high risk.
And this is why we always advise to invest only for the long term holding. Bitcoin always has risks, and whether it is long-term or short-term, and neither is risk-free. However, there is a difference in risk, high risk or low risk, in the case of short-term trading, the risk is very high, and in the case of long-term investment, there is risk, but the probability of this risk is very low, and the probability of profit is very high.
So those who invest in DCA, and hold for the long term, they will be able to profit much more than these short-term traders.