Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
WatChe
on 21/02/2025, 17:00:54 UTC
⭐ Merited by vapourminer (1)
Hahahahahaha

A win-win for you, ONLY if you end up winning, and if I were to lose the bet, then the amount that I would be paying you has four zeros after the decimal (not 3 zeros).. which is: 0.00003 BTC (3,000 satoshis).  Otherwise, if you lose the bet, then you have to pay me 0.0003 BTC (30k satoshis) (which has 3 zeros and not 4, and I have to receive that amount, so you are responsible for fees, if you end up losing and end up having to  send to me).

Sure directionally, your satoshis cost less if you lose the bet as compared to if you win the bet, then satoshis that I pay you are worth more if I lose the bet, but they still are only 1/10th the amount of satoshis that you would end up paying if you were to lose the bet.  I suppose one of the calculations of placing bets in satoshis as compared with placing bets in dollars when each of us realize that it continues to be likely that with the passage of time the value of satoshis are going to continue to go up in dollar terms.

In any event, I am expecting that the odds for you to win the bet are greater than for me to win the bet, such as perhaps you have 60% or 70% odds of winning the bet, yet I entered into the bet with you, since I really doubt that your odds of winning the bet are anything close to 90%, which makes the bet economical for me to enter it, even if my odds of winning the bet may well be only 30% to 40%. 

And yeah, maybe I should have forced you into giving me greater odds, but that is O.k.  I am feeling charitable to some extent to merely get you to agree to the bet terms, and the other portion,  if the BTC price were to go up to $333,333, then at that point my paying you 0.00003 BTC (3,000 satoshis) would amount to a dollar value of right around $10.  I should be able to afford, it, even though sure  in  dollar terms if you lose the bet then your 0.0003 BTC (30k satoshis) would ONLY be worth $27, so in dollar terms we might imagine scenarios in which the odds are ONLY 10/27.... so a little less than 1/3...

You are comfertable that you are in win-win situation while same I am assuming. Let's just leave that to person who win or lose. To me it's more about appreciation to your claim rather then money in this case. Failure is not but aiming low is a crime.  



Maybe if you consider your bet to be such a great deal and such a potential money maker, you might want to seek some other guys who might want to enter such bet on similar terms or we could increase the amounts, since it is still relatively early in the term of the bet.

I never bet/gamble because of different reasons. This is first time I am betting with someone and it's mainly because you challenged and I have no other option but to respond.    



JJG lets make a formal post as suggested by hisslyness(third adjudicator) and also we have verification from vapourminer ([url=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg65061839#msg65061839).
Just create a post and we can refer to in case anyone wins.