I have the same assumption as you. While Haaland in the previous season could always work very well with KDB who could create winning scores in every match. However, this season KDB is getting older and his performance is declining, making Haaland lack contribution from the midfield. So I also think that even if Haaland is present in this match, it still won't be able to change Man City's fate. Unless Guardiola understands this decline in performance and immediately finds a way to fix all these bad things.
When the odds arise for the Reds to win the English Premier League title, I gave them the benefits of doubts because they're competent and having the presence of all quality player and high profile coach with experience, what else is stopping them from winning? We could remember vividly how Manchester City dominated last season with streak winnings, they have absolutely no mates that can stand face to face with them, not Arsenal that are popularly regarded as the title bottlers. Liverpool accumulated three points after the clash with Manchester City. It was an easy game for Arne Slot men, he did plan solid tactics that enable him to grab winning.
Pep Guardiola is confused and frustrated as the same time, he has ideas to explore but he's keen on making extension of his team which is compulsory for him. With the likes of Kelvin De Bruyne, there's zero odds to win games against elite oppositions.