Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
⭐ Merited by vapourminer (1)
^ $5000 dump incoming.
$4500 dump is acceptable above that it will a chaos. 
It's going lower, much lower.
HODLers are not usually going to have fun during these kinds of dumping times and/or trying to figure out where the bottom might be. I have been buying every $3k-ish since $95k, and it still is not fun. If we get to $74k, then my buy increments convert to $2,500-ish at that point.
It looks like my earlier anticipation of $85,000 not being breached is almost to be negated... still $953 to go, as I type this post.
I don't think 4 years, but definitely an extended time.
Though I think we'll bounce soonish but we will probably be stuck in a range for a length of time similar to last year.
I used to say 30% drops on the way up are normal, and so far, we haven't had a 30% drop yet. I've seen it happen several times in previous bull runs.Though I think we'll bounce soonish but we will probably be stuck in a range for a length of time similar to last year.
I don't like it though, lower €85k feels so low now.
I'm just reminding myself of the date I posted this:
In a few months, we'll feel sad Bitcoin is down to $75k again.
A 30% drop from the so far ATH would be about $76,549. A bit much, but momentum seems present at the moment. 50/50? Greater than 50/50? When in free fall, hard to call it with any precision, which maybe is way quite a few of us (including yours truly) are not claiming to be traders.
[edited out]
Accepted. Waiting for JJG to come and decide how he want to settle that.
I sent a PM to WatChe.
At the same time, there shouldn't be any reasons for any of the relatively longer term bitcoiners (what is a longer term bitcoiner these days? greater than 1.5 cycles?.. that would be prior to 2019) to be concerned about any of these matters, even though surely there are some of us who are getting anxious to cash out some coins, but not wanting to cash out any significant amounts of coin around $100k or even below $100k.. like some newbie fixated on round numbers.
Nothing to add here, except that longer term is assumed to be >1y, which i don't quite agree with, because the timeframe of "longer terms" is slowly expanding, but "shorter terms" (<1y) are not, nor are they getting shorter. This needs a differentiated view, imho. My personal "longer term" definition is >=2 cycles, which is not far from yours.I have had to redefine some of my own ideas of trader versus investor and longer term versus shorter term.
In bitcoin, I consider anyone playing with ins and outs in less than a 4 year timeline to be a trader.
I consider anyone planning to come in and get out 4-10 years as short-term investor.. and only real valid reasons to get out would be age or health reasons.
I consider 10 years or longer to be a regular investor.. and I suppose I have not exactly figured out long term investor, yet it probably would have some kind of a sustainable withdrawal component rather than ideas of getting in and out.. sustainable withdrawals can be price based and/or time-based.. using the 200-WMA as a guide in regards to how to potentially carry-out some kind of sustainability..
For example, I consider that right now 18.02 BTC would be entry-level fuck you status for someone who considers a $80k per year withdrawal rate, and including anticipating being able to increase that withdrawal rate with the anticipated debasement of the dollar.. meaning that with some reasonable managing techniques, it should be sustainable in perpetuity... absent a breakage of bitcoin. When at the threshold level, having some extra cushion would be nice, but I would still argue that the threshold level is sufficient with reasonable managing techniques.. Managing techniques become more challenging, if the BTC price gets within 25% of the 200-WMA (which is currently at $44.4k), which maybe in that sense if the person were to ONLY have the 18.02 BTC, then they need to convert some of that into cash.., whether a month or a quarter or a year, so in that sense it would be nice to have the cash to offset.. ..18.02 withdrawing an initial years of cash might be problematic, even though my model allows the withdraw of 5 months in advance when the BTC price is 100% higher than the 200-WMA (which would be $88.8k).. yet our current prices just dropped below 100% above the 200-WMA.